Betting Strategy Guide
Line Movement Explained: Why Betting Lines Move
Key takeaways
- Betting lines move because of the money being bet and because of news such as injuries, weather and lineup changes.
- The opening line is the first number posted and the closing line is the last one before the game starts, after the market has absorbed the most information.
- In football, a move across 3 or 7 matters more than other moves, because those are the most common winning margins.
Line movement is the change in a spread, total or price between the moment a market opens and the moment the game starts. Lines move because of the money being bet and because of news such as injuries and weather, so tracking them shows how the market's view of a game has changed.
Why lines move
- Money: heavy or respected betting on one side pushes the line away from it.
- Injuries: a missing quarterback or star player can move a spread by several points.
- Weather: strong wind or heavy rain tends to lower football and baseball totals.
- News: lineups, suspensions and rest decisions all change the picture.
Opening and closing lines
The opening line is the first number posted; the closing line is the last one before the game starts, when the market has absorbed the most information. Comparing your number with the close is called closing line value. Here is one game's spread over a week:
| When | Spread | Price | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opening | Favorite -3 | -110 | 52.4% |
| Midweek | Favorite -3 | -120 | 54.5% |
| Closing | Favorite -3.5 | -110 | 52.4% |
Key numbers: 3 and 7
In football, 3 and 7 are the most common winning margins. That is why the price moved first, from risking $110 to win $100 to risking $120, before the spread left 3. At -3 a 3-point win is a push; at -3.5 it loses for anyone backing the favorite. That matters far more than a move from -4.5 to -5.
Reverse line movement
A line usually moves away from the side drawing the money. Reverse line movement is a line moving against the side most bets are on: say 70% of bets are on Favorite -7, yet the line drops to -6.5. That suggests fewer but larger or more respected bets on the underdog. See sharp money vs. public money.
Use movement as information
- Ask why a line moved. An injury you already knew about is different from a move with no news.
- Do not copy a move after it happens: the number left is worse than the one that caused it.
- Movement can open a gap between two numbers, the basis of a middle.
- Lines move on opinions, not results. No approach removes the risk.
Betting at Betcris Arizona
Betcris Arizona is licensed by the Arizona Department of Gaming. You must be 21 or older and located in Arizona to place a bet. Check the current promotions before you bet, and read our responsible gaming policy. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why do betting lines move?
+
Because of the money being bet and because of news such as injuries, weather and lineup changes. Sportsbooks adjust the number or the price to reflect new information and manage their risk.
What is the difference between the opening and closing line?
+
The opening line is the first number a sportsbook posts; the closing line is the last one before the game starts. The closing line has absorbed the most information.
Why are 3 and 7 key numbers in football?
+
A field goal is worth 3 points and a touchdown with the extra point 7, so they are the most common final margins. A half point either side of them changes how often a bet wins, loses or pushes.
Is it better to bet early or late?
+
Neither is better in general. Early numbers can move for you or against you, and late news such as injuries can change a price close to the start.
