NCAAF Predictions: Iowa State vs Arizona Odds

It might be difficult for the action in college football today to match what we saw last Saturday. Five of the top seven teams in the AP Top 25 Rankings lost last week, and No. 3 Miami (FL) was taken to double overtime by rival Florida State. That has led to a massive shakeup in the rankings with the Hurricanes ranked No. 1 for the first time since the conclusion of the 2002 season. The Arizona Wildcats entered the rankings for the first time this season as well, and they will face the Iowa State Cyclones after a bye week.

Now, let’s take a look at our college football predictions for that Big 12 showdown and some of the other important games this week. Arizona is a double-digit favorite in college football odds for their home game against Iowa State.

College Football Games Today

There are only two games between ranked teams in CFB today. The Ole Miss Rebels will look to knock off the Texas Longhorns in Austin as a short underdog in the first of those two games, and the second game will be the site of the eighth iteration of College GameDay during the college football 26 season.

The Utah Utes will host the Houston Cougars in Salt Lake City. This will be the seventh time that College GameDay has traveled to Salt Lake City, and the Utes are 3-3 in the previous games where the biggest pregame show in college football is in town. Currently, Utah is 6-0 and Houston is 6-1, and both teams are trying to chase down unbeatens BYU and Texas Tech.

Who Plays Football Today?

Big 12 fans are in for a treat on Saturday night. The No. 25 Arizona Wildcats will host the Iowa State Cyclones at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2, and the No. 10 Utah Utes will welcome the No. 14 Houston Cougars to the Beehive State at 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Top NCAAF Games on Today’s Schedule

There are some solid games throughout the Saturday slate. Michigan will host Indiana and Auburn will host LSU at noon in games where the home team is a live underdog. No. 2 BYU will head to Orlando as a touchdown favorite against UCF at 3:30 p.m. ET, and Wisconsin will try to upset No. 16 USC in Madison on Saturday night. 

NCAAF Preview for Today’s Top Matchups

There is plenty to talk about in this week’s NCAAF preview. This is the penultimate week before the first College Football Playoff Rankings are announced, so there are definitely some teams playing for style points. However, three of the top five teams in the country will be on a bye.

Ranked College Football Matchups

The most watched game in college football today is likely to be No. 19 Texas vs. No. 7 Ole Miss. The Longhorns have been extremely disappointing after their big win over Ohio State, losing to Oklahoma and Florida in each of the last two weeks. That has led to increasing speculation that Arch Manning might lose playing time to sophomore KJ Lacey Jr. 

Utah will attempt to move to 7-0 against Houston in CFB today. New head coach Morgan Scalley is taking the college football world by storm with his two-quarterback scheme, and that has led to the Utes ranking 11th in Offensive SP+. Houston is even better on offense, ranking 9th in Offensive SP+, so this could be a high scoring affair. 

Conference Games to Watch

The Big 12 has some of the best college football games today. Texas Tech will head on the road to face Cincinnati in Nippert Stadium at noon, and UCF will try to upset BYU in the Bounce House at 3:30 p.m. ET. Arizona will take on Iowa State at 7:30 p.m. ET, and the last game of the night could be the best with Utah hosting Houston.

College Football Lines Today

There have been some changes in the college football lines since the openers were released on Sunday afternoon. We have seen most of the money come in on underdogs after last week’s upsets, and there will likely be a large number of moneyline underdog parlays too. 

Point Spreads and Moneylines

Arizona was an 11-point favorite over Iowa State when the opening line was released on Sunday. The line has moved down to 10 points, and the Wildcats are -325 on the moneyline. 

College Football Over/Under Lines

The over/under in the Arizona and Iowa State game is currently sitting at 50.5 points.

College Football Predictions Today

We have seen Iowa State alternate wins and losses this season. According to the pattern, the Cyclones would win this game, but I am going to back Arizona in my college football predictions. Iowa State’s only Power Four win came against West Virginia, while Arizona has looked strong all year. Both teams are coming off a bye week, so injuries shouldn’t play much of an issue in the end result here.

Predictions for Today’s Biggest Games

Probably the favorite one of my college football predictions involving top teams is for Miami to cover the number against Pittsburgh. The Hurricanes survived an upset bid by Florida State last week, and I believe they will be much looser after that victory. Pittsburgh started the year strong with Mason Heintschel under center, but Holden Geriner and Corey Dailey have been the starters for the last couple games after Heintschel was injured and have not been great.

Additionally, I think LSU will put together another dominant performance on the road against Auburn. The Tigers were able to put it all together to upset Georgia last week, but LSU won’t take this team for granted.

Potential Upsets to Watch

UCF has a real opportunity to knock off BYU on Saturday. The Knights have an underrated home field advantage, and Keyone Jenkins has played very well in place of an injured Alonza Barnett III. This ground attack has been strong with Duke Watson averaging 6.9 YPC, and BYU is in a sandwich spot after a big win over Notre Dame and a massive showdown with Utah on deck in two weeks.

Keep an eye on Minnesota against Iowa on Saturday. P.J. Fleck knows how to motivate his team, and Iowa’s wins don’t look as good as they did earlier in the season. The Hawkeyes will be starting Jeremy Hecklinski under center instead of Hank Brown, and Hecklinski will only be making his second start. 

College Football Picks for Today

It was great to nail both my underdog moneylines in my college football picks two weeks ago. North Carolina was able to knock off Pittsburgh, and South Carolina hammered Florida on the road as a double-digit underdog. I don’t see as much value on the moneylines in the college football lines this week, but here are my NCAAF expert picks.

Against-the-Spread Picks

Miami (FL) -20.5 vs. Pittsburgh
UCF +7 vs. BYU
LSU -7.5 at Auburn
Minnesota +6.5 vs. Iowa
Arizona -10 vs. Iowa State

Moneyline Picks

UCF +210 vs BYU
Minnesota +210 vs. Iowa

College Football Best Bets

One of my top college football picks of the week is Arizona to cover the number at home against Iowa State. My other college football best bets are Minnesota, UCF, LSU, and Miami (FL). 

Best Bet of the Day

Miami (FL) is my favorite bet for Saturday. The Hurricanes have one of the most electrifying offenses in the nation led by Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney, and they will be able to carve up a Pittsburgh secondary that hasn’t seen anything like this speed and playmaking ability. 

Best Value Betting Opportunities

Minnesota is in a good position to knock off Iowa or at least keep the final score within the number. The Golden Gophers have a Top 40 defense per SP+, and they can cause a lot of trouble for an inexperienced quarterback.

LSU and Arizona should both be able to win by double digits. The Tigers are a lot more talented than their opponent, while the Wildcats have one of the nation’s most underrated quarterbacks under center. Noah Fifita is averaging 9.2 YPA with 16 touchdown passes and four interceptions. 

Key Factors Behind Today’s College Football Predictions

As with any college football predictions, injuries and home field advantage play a big part. Big injuries along the offensive line and defensive line often go unnoticed by the media, but they can play a massive role in a game. Quarterbacks can look rather pedestrian if they don’t have talented players keeping the pocket clean, while defensive linemen are now seen as the premier defenders due to their ability to get pressure.

Quarterbacks, Injuries and Team News

Noah Fifita is a big reason why I’m betting on Arizona in this game. Fifita is a four-year starter that was fantastic in 2023 and 2025, and he is having another great year. The 5’10 signal caller is one of the top ten quarterbacks in the country by many metrics, and he is thriving in his senior season. 

Recent Form and Home-Field Advantage

Arizona hasn’t lost at home since a double overtime loss to BYU in mid-October. The Wildcats’ last regular season loss in regulation came at the end of the 2024 season when they went 4-8.

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