Thursday Night Football Odds & Predictions

We have been spoiled for choice when it comes to the weekly Thursday night football game so far this season. There have already been some great games featuring Super Bowl contenders, and that will be the case on NFL Thursday night football this week too. The defending champion Seattle Seahawks will travel to the Mile High City to face the team that was the best regular season team in the AFC last season, the Denver Broncos. There will be plenty of Thursday night football predictions available below for this featured game. The Seahawks are listed as a slight road favorite in NFL betting odds.

Thursday Night Football Matchup Preview

This Thursday night football matchup will be one of the most anticipated games of the regular season. Either Seattle or Denver will move to 3-3 and suddenly have some real fears about their playoff hopes. Both the Seahawks and Broncos are in a division where the leader is unbeaten as well, so the loser of this game will face an uphill battle to win either the NFC West or the AFC West.

Team Records & Recent Form

Seattle has been favored in every game so far this season. The Seahawks have been no less than a 3.5-point favorite in all five of their games, but they are just 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS. They failed to cover the number in the opener against New England, yet that was understandable given they lost starting quarterback Sam Darnold in that game. A road loss to the Washington Commanders was much less forgivable, but the Seahawks were -3 in turnover ratio and finished with almost 180 yards more than the Commanders. Turnovers proved costly against division rival San Francisco last week too as Seattle gave the ball up four times in a 32-29 loss.

It's been an up-and-down season for Denver. The Broncos are 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS, but you could argue they are fortunate to have a winning record since they have yet to enter the fourth quarter leading their opponent. Denver was thoroughly outplayed by Kansas City in its season opener and needed two fourth quarter touchdowns to beat Jacksonville the following week. A 16-point second half comeback win over the Los Angeles Rams seemed like it might provide a spark, but the Broncos looked listless on offense in a loss to San Francisco the following week.

Denver was able to beat the 0-5 Los Angeles Chargers to move back over .500 last Sunday, but the Broncos finished with just 224 total yards of offense and benefited from three Chargers’ turnovers.

Key Injuries & Roster Updates

Standout Seattle receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is listed as questionable, but he is expected to play through an ankle injury. Running back Zach Charbonnet might be ready to make his season debut after spending the first five weeks on the PUP List, and backup quarterback Drew Lock is questionable with a forearm injury. On the other side of the ball, Leonard Williams is questionable due to an ankle injury, Drake Thomas is questionable with an ankle injury, and Chazz Surratt is unlikely to play because of a calf injury that has kept him out of two straight games.

The Broncos are pretty healthy on offense. There are a few reserves that are banged up, but none of the starters are on the injury report. That’s not the case for Denver’s defense though. All-Pro cornerback Pat Surtain II looks set to miss his second straight game with an ankle injury, opposite cornerback Riley Moss is questionable after missing last week with bruised ribs, and standout safety Talanoa Hufanga is questionable due to an ankle issue.

Storylines to Watch

Jaxon Smith-Njigba helped turn Sam Darnold into a Super Bowl champion last season. Smith-Njigba was targeted a whopping 163 times in 2025, and he has become a touchdown machine this season. The 2023 first-round pick out of Ohio State has seven touchdown receptions through five games, and Smith-Njigba has been targeted even more often so far this year.

It’s becoming more and more obvious that Bo Nix is a mediocre quarterback. Nix was great in last year’s playoff win over Buffalo, and that game papered over some of the legitimate concerns surrounding his efficacy. His completion percentage has fallen for the third straight season, and he is now completing under 60% of his passes and averaging under 6.0 YPA. Nix has been able to lead the Broncos to some comeback wins this year, but more is needed from the third-year quarterback considering this offensive line and defense are elite units.

Thursday Night Football Odds

Although Denver is a very difficult place to play, Seattle is a short favorite on Thursday Night Football. The Seahawks were originally favored by two points, and that line is currently hovering between Seattle -2.5 and Seattle -3.

Point Spread Odds

Currently, Seattle -2.5 is -120 and Seattle -3 is +100. Bettors will have plenty of chances to move on or off of three as the week progresses prior to kickoff.

Moneyline Odds

As of Tuesday morning, the Seattle Seahawks are -150 on the moneyline. That means you will need to make a $150 wager on Seattle to win $100 if you want to bet the Seahawks to simply win the game. Conversely, a $100 bet on Denver would return a $130 profit as the Broncos are currently +130 per the NFL moneyline odds.

Over/Under Odds

The total in this game has been set at 41 points since these are two of the top defenses in the NFL.

Thursday Night Football Predictions

I have a lot more faith in Sam Darnold than I do in Bo Nix. Darnold has shown a lot over the last two seasons, while Nix continues to regress as a passer. Although Nix has had plenty of protection and has only been sacked six times in five games, he is averaging just 188.4 YPG and has a 43.1 QBR on the season. Denver’s injury issues in the secondary will lead to some major trouble handling Jaxon Smith-Njigba as well, so I will take the Seahawks to win and cover.

Winner Prediction

I feel very confident in backing the favorite in my Thursday night football picks for Week 6. Seattle is a more talented team than Denver, and there are far fewer questions surrounding the Seahawks. The Broncos could be without their three best defensive backs, and that spells trouble against arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL.

Score Prediction

Seattle Seahawks 24, Denver Broncos 13

X-Factor of the Game

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been incredible this season. Smith-Njigba leads the league with 583 receiving yards, as Mike Macdonald’s staff continues to scheme ways to get him open even without Klint Kubiak. He already has 454 receiving yards more than anyone else on the Seahawks, and the rest of the team has 608 receiving yards and four touchdowns combined.

Best Bets for Thursday Night Football

There’s no doubt regarding which side to bet for Thursday night football best bets on October 15. Seattle is on the road, but the Seahawks have a better quarterback, a better receiver, and fewer injury issues than Denver. It’s just too hard to trust Nix against an elite opponent until he can prove that he can move the ball.

Best Spread Bet

Seattle Seahawks -2.5

Best Moneyline Bet

Seattle Seahawks -150

Best Total Bet

Under 41 Points

Thursday Night Football Player Props

More NFL player props will be released closer to kickoff, but here are the NFL props that I will be betting on for this week’s Thursday Night Football game.

Passing Props

Although Bo Nix has only thrown for 200 yards or more twice this season, his passing yards total is set at 204.5 yards. Nix has made a habit of checking down or settling for passes within five yards of the line of scrimmage, so I will take the Under here. Opposing defenses are keying in on Nix’s tendencies, and I don’t think he will be able to stretch the field against the Seahawks.

Conversely, I like Sam Darnold to throw for more than 218.5 passing yards in this game. Darnold has one of the best receivers in the league, a solid possession option in Cooper Kupp, and a tight end that can make tough catches in A.J. Barner. Denver might not have Pat Surtain II, Riley Moss, or Talanoa Hufanga on Thursday night, and that would make things really tough on the Broncos’ defense.

Rushing Props

I don’t think Emanuel Wilson will surpass 67.5 rushing yards. Wilson has carried the ball 20 times or more in three of the last four weeks, but he also has two fumbles and is averaging just 3.4 YPC this season. First-round pick Jadarian Price is on injured reserve due to a chest injury, but if Zach Charbonnet is able to return, he will take a lot of Wilson’s carries, and George Holani will see some action too.

Denver has preferred J.K. Dobbins over R.J. Harvey at running back this season. Dobbins leads the Broncos with 64 carries for 229 yards (3.6 YPC), while Harvey has 15 carries for 56 yards (3.7 YPC). That’s why Dobbins has a total of 48.5 rushing yards, and there is little value in either side at that number.

Receiving Props

Unsurprisingly, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has the highest total of any receiver. Smith-Njigba has an over/under of 90.5 receiving yards, and although that is a high number, I will be taking the Over. Seattle knows how to scheme ways to get Smith-Njigba open, and the injuries to the Denver secondary will really hamper the Broncos’ ability to cover the star receiver.

No Denver receiver has a total that is higher than 50 receiving yards. Jaylen Waddle has been the top target this season, while Courtland Sutton has just 11 receptions for 104 yards and a touchdown despite being targeted 26 times.

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

There’s no doubt that Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the most likely touchdown scorer here. If you are looking for a bet with longer odds, A.J. Barner might prove to be an astute option.

Thursday Night Football Betting Trends

There aren’t as many stark NFL betting trends as we saw last week with Tampa Bay and Dallas. Seattle has covered the number in 7 of its last 10 games dating back to last year. The Over has covered in three straight Seahawks’ games, but the Under has seen a stronger trend. The Under has cashed in 7 of Denver’s last 9 games dating back to last season.

Against the Spread Trends

Road teams went 11-4 ATS in Week 5. Three of the four home teams that covered were short favorites, while Green Bay was the only home underdog that won last week.

Over/Under Trends

The Over has been 40-39 so far this season, but five of those games that went over the total were overtime affairs.

Head-to-Head Trends

Seattle has defeated Denver in four of the last five games between these teams, including the Seahawks blowout win in Super Bowl XLVIII.

How to Bet on Thursday Night Football

It is unusual for me to keep following favorites with my NFL betting tips, but the situation is just too good for Seattle this week. The Seahawks have fewer injury concerns and a much better quarterback, so I will jump at the opportunity to take the defending Super Bowl champions at their lowest number yet this season.

Understanding NFL Betting Markets

The spread in this game is likely to stay around three points since three is the most important key number in football. Late injury decisions surrounding Denver’s secondary could shift the betting odds closer to a hard three.

Tips for Betting Thursday Night Football

Underdogs and Unders are usually good bets on Thursday Night Football given the short week for both teams. However, the injury situation does not favor Denver, so I expect Seattle to win and cover in this game.

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