World Cup Group I Preview: Betting Predictions & Team Analysis

The traditional idea of a Group of Death has changed now that eight of the 12 third-place teams will move on from the Group Stage. Even with that expanded safety net, Group I still looks like the toughest section of the 2026 World Cup draw. France, Norway, and Senegal all carry World Cup title odds of 100-1 or shorter, while Iraq should not be overlooked because of their recent form and strong showings in Asian competitions. That combination should create one of the most competitive groups before the knockout rounds.

Odds to win Group I

France -245
Norway +290
Senegal +780
Iraq +5500

France are the odds-on favorites to finish first in Group I according to the Group Stage World Cup betting odds. The two-time World Cup champions have been one of the strongest national teams in the world for several years, winning the 2018 World Cup, reaching the 2022 final against Argentina, and advancing to the Euro 2024 semifinals before falling to eventual champion Spain. Still, Norway and Senegal both have enough quality to make Les Bleus work for the top spot.

Odds to Win World Cup for Group I Teams

France +490
Norway +3300
Senegal +10000
Iraq +155000

Outside of Spain, France have the shortest odds to win the World Cup. Les Bleus are once again loaded with talent and enter the tournament as one of the clear favorites. Norway own the ninth-shortest price on the board, while Senegal are among the 21 teams listed at 100-1 or shorter. Iraq are the only true longshot in Group I.

Match Schedule

France vs. Senegal, June 16, 2026, at 3 p.m. ET from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey (Match 17)

Iraq vs. Norway, June 16, 2026, at 6 p.m. ET from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts (Match 18)

Norway vs. Senegal, June 22, 2026, at 8 p.m. ET from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey (Match 41)

France vs. Iraq, June 22, 2026, at 5 p.m. ET from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (Match 42)

Norway vs. France, June 26, 2026, at 3 p.m. ET from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts (Match 61)

Senegal vs. Iraq, June 26, 2026, at 3 p.m. ET from BMO Field in Toronto, Canada (Match 62)

Team Previews

France

This tournament will mark the final chapter for Didier Deschamps as France manager. Deschamps is already a national icon after captaining Les Bleus to their first World Cup title in 1998, and he has led the national team from the sideline since 2012. France have been outstanding throughout much of his tenure, so whoever follows him will inherit one of the most demanding jobs in international soccer.

France may have the deepest group of forwards in the tournament. Captain Kylian Mbappe has already secured his place among the country’s all-time greats, scoring 56 goals in 96 appearances despite still being just 27. That leaves him only one goal behind Olivier Giroud for the national team scoring record. Mbappe did not produce his best club season with Real Madrid, but he has consistently delivered for France and appears healthy after dealing with multiple injuries in recent months.

Ousmane Dembele, the reigning Ballon d’Or winner, will be trying to finally turn his club-level breakthrough into a major international statement. Dembele has found another gear at Paris Saint-Germain after never becoming a consistent scoring threat at Barcelona. However, his France numbers remain modest, with seven goals in 58 appearances.

Rayan Cherki, Bradley Barcola, and Desire Doue give France several dangerous attacking options off the bench. Adrien Rabiot can push forward from midfield and influence the final third, while N’Golo Kante is expected to once again anchor the team as its leading defensive midfielder.

The French defense is also filled with high-end talent. Arsenal center back William Saliba is one of the key pieces, while Aston Villa’s Lucas Digne is the most experienced defender in the squad with 56 caps. Jules Kounde has recently excelled at right back for Barcelona, although the final starting spot in the back line remains unsettled.

Mike Maignan is firmly positioned as France’s first-choice goalkeeper. The AC Milan standout has been excellent at club level and has reportedly drawn interest from Chelsea ahead of a possible move after the World Cup. In a notable decision, Lucas Chevalier was left off the roster after failing to receive significant minutes at PSG.

Norway

There is plenty of excitement around Norway heading into the World Cup. Erling Haaland has turned the Norwegians into a popular dark-horse pick because he is one of the few forwards capable of changing a match almost on his own. Haaland has already scored 55 goals in just 49 appearances for Norway, and he is not the only major threat up front. Alexander Sorloth has added 26 goals for the national team and has developed into one of La Liga’s more productive forwards with Villarreal and Atletico Madrid.

Captain Martin Odegaard will be the player controlling the midfield. Odegaard has been excellent for both Arsenal and Norway in recent years and has played a major role in the rise of both teams. Sander Berge should be important as a defensive midfielder, while Fredrik Aursnes is also expected to see plenty of minutes. Bodo/Glimt midfielder Patrick Berg could have a meaningful role as well.

Brentford defender Kristoffer Ajer is the main figure in Norway’s back line and stands out physically at 6-foot-6. Torbjorn Heggem or Leo Ostigard will likely partner him in central defense, while Julian Ryerson appears locked in at right back. Sevilla goalkeeper Orjan Nyland has a firm hold on the No. 1 shirt and is expected to start in goal.

This will be Norway’s first World Cup appearance since 1998 and only the fourth in the country’s history. Norway were excellent last year and beat Italy by a combined 7-1 score across two meetings, but there are still questions after losing to the Netherlands in Amsterdam and failing to score at home against Switzerland in March.

Senegal

Senegal may enter the World Cup with as much motivation as any team in the field. The Lions of Teranga were stripped of their Africa Cup of Nations title two months after the final, and they responded with convincing two-goal wins over Peru and Gambia in late March. Senegal famously stunned France in their first-ever World Cup match in 2002, and this group gives them a chance to deliver another major statement.

Sadio Mane will likely be playing in his final World Cup for Senegal. Mane will be remembered as the greatest player in the country’s history, having scored 53 goals in 126 appearances. No other Senegal player has reached 30 goals, which shows how far ahead he is as the nation’s all-time leading scorer. Mane is nearing the end of his prime, but it was only four years ago that he finished runner-up to Karim Benzema for the 2022 Ballon d’Or.

Idrissa Gueye, the most capped player in Senegal history, is also expected to be making his last World Cup appearance. Gueye has been a powerful midfield presence for years and will likely line up alongside Pape Gueye and Habib Diarra. The younger Gueye and Diarra give Senegal a promising future, along with Crystal Palace forward Ismaila Sarr.

The biggest concern for Senegal may be the defense. Kalidou Koulibaly has more than 100 caps and remains the leader of the unit, but he is no longer playing at his peak level. Moussa Niakhate and El Hadji Malick Diouf may be the most talented defenders in the group, though Diouf is still relatively inexperienced and had some difficult moments in West Ham’s back line. Goalkeeper Edouard Mendy gives Senegal a reliable last line of defense and can help cover mistakes.

Iraq

Iraq will be making just their second World Cup appearance. Their first trip came in 1986, when they failed to earn a result but were competitive enough to lose each match by only one goal. The Lions of Mesopotamia have also shown they can surprise on bigger stages, winning the 2007 AFC Asian Cup and claiming the 25th Arabian Gulf Cup three years ago.

Most of Iraq’s squad is expected to be built around domestic-based players. Aymen Hussein should be the primary attacking option after scoring 33 goals in 93 appearances for the national team. Mohanad Ali is another forward to watch with 27 goals in 70 caps, but Hussein’s physical presence will likely make him the player opposing defenses focus on most.

Ibrahim Bayesh is the most experienced midfielder in the squad and played an important role during World Cup qualifying. The more intriguing long-term talent may be 22-year-old Ali Jasim, who has shown flashes of quality that helped him earn a move to Serie A side Como two years ago.

Iraq will need a major defensive effort given the attacking quality throughout Group I. Unfortunately, the back line does not offer much proven top-level talent, so the team may have to rely heavily on captain Jalal Hassan. The veteran goalkeeper earned his 100th cap last year and should face a serious test in a pre-World Cup friendly against Spain.