World Cup Quarterfinals 2026: Odds & Picks for July 11

The last two World Cup quarterfinal matches take place on Saturday, July 11 on FOX with England listed as a -115 favorite against Norway, while Argentina is a -145 favorite against Switzerland. As the World Cup quarterfinals began, six of the eight teams left in the World Cup were from Europe, so there’s a strong chance that we will see another European champion crowned in less than two weeks.

Morocco and Argentina were the only teams left from outside Europe taking part in the World Cup Quarterfinals 2026 matches, and most pundits expect Morocco to be eliminated by France. As for Argentina, they are looking to be just the third team in World Cup history to repeat as champions.

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What to Expect from the World Cup Quarterfinals 2026

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has had some fantastic matches so far. Argentina overcame a two-goal deficit to beat Egypt, and the match between Mexico and England was one for the ages. Hopefully, we see more matches like that as the stakes rise, but there is a clear favorite in all four quarterfinal matches.

France will make its third straight semifinals appearance with a win over Morocco. These two teams met in the semifinals of the 2022 World Cup with France beating Morocco 2-0 to advance to the World Cup Final. Argentina is looking to make its third semifinals appearance in the last four World Cup competitions, while Spain is hoping to make its first semifinals appearance since winning the 2010 World Cup.  

Why the Quarterfinals Often Produce Tournament-Defining Moments

Some of the most famous goals in World Cup history have been scored in the quarterfinals. Diego Maradona scored both the Hand of God goal and the Goal of the Century four minutes apart against England at the 1986 World Cup. Ronaldinho led Brazil past England with a brilliant free kick in the quarterfinals of the 2002 World Cup, and Dennis Bergkamp made one of the greatest plays in World Cup history when he fired the Netherlands past Argentina at this stage in 1998.

How the Expanded 2026 Format Shapes the Final Eight

In previous World Cups, teams only played one knockout match before advancing to the quarterfinals. Now, teams must play two elimination matches prior to reaching this stage, and some teams have significant travel or rest advantages.

England might be the most affected team as the Three Lions went from playing Mexico in the altitude of Estadio Azteca to facing Norway in hot and humid Miami. Meanwhile, World Cup favorites France continue to have a favorable path and will play their sixth straight match in the northeastern United States with precious little travel.

World Cup Quarterfinal Teams: Who Reached the Last Eight?

There are no true longshots left among the World Cup quarterfinal teams. Switzerland had the longest World Cup odds of the teams still alive, and the Swiss were 90-1 to win the World Cup before the tournament started.

Pre-tournament favorites Spain, France, and England are all still alive, but there is a new favorite at this point. France has surpassed Spain as the team with the lowest odds to win the World Cup following a dominant performance in the Group Stage, and Les Bleus have shown an ability to score unlike any other in this competition.

Argentina is on the short list of favorites too, while Morocco, Norway, and Belgium are all looking to win the World Cup for the first time.

Surprise Contenders Still in the Hunt

Switzerland is the most surprising team still in the World Cup, but the Swiss did win Group B and outlasted Colombia in penalty kicks to make the quarterfinals. They have the longest World Cup odds at 42-1. Belgium is 35-1 despite a dominant win over the United States as the Golden Generation is clearly on its last legs, while Morocco is 29-1 and carries the hopes of a continent.

Traditional Powerhouses Chasing the Trophy

Two-time World Cup champion France appears to be the team to beat and currently has +175 odds to win the tournament. Former champion Spain and three-time champion Argentina have virtually even odds as the second favorite, while England is 5-1 to win its first World Cup since 1966. 

Breaking Down the World Cup Quarterfinal Matchups

France, Spain, England, and Argentina are all odds-on favorites on the three-way betting line in their World Cup quarterfinal matches. Those four teams all have a stronger pedigree than their opponents, and all four countries are previous World Cup winners.

Most Competitive Quarterfinal Pairings

The oddsmakers have listed England vs. Norway as the most competitive match in the quarterfinals. England and Norway are the fourth- and fifth-favorites to win the World Cup, and this figures to be a very exciting match after both teams won games that went over the total in the Round of 16.

There is some hope that France vs. Morocco can be competitive too. Morocco is one of the best teams in the world on the counter, and they have the talent on the wings to cause trouble for France’s midfielders. Captain Achraf Hakimi is the most recognizable name, but the resurgence of midfielder Azzedine Ounahi has made the Atlas Lions a true threat once more.

Matchups That Could Define the Tournament

Spain might be the only remaining team that can stop France. La Roja have not looked overwhelming in their five previous matches, but they have yet to allow a goal as they are dominating possession like we saw when Spain were at their peak. Belgium are a tricky team with their youth and ability to bring experienced playmakers off the bench, but France would love to face Belgium rather than Spain.

World Cup Quarterfinal Odds: How the Betting Markets Compare

It's important to keep in mind the difference between World Cup quarterfinal odds when betting on matches in this round. There is three-way betting, Asian Handicap betting, and then betting on a team to advance.

The last of these bets is the easiest to explain as betting on a team to advance simply means betting on a team to make it to the semifinals. Asian Handicap betting can be compared to spread betting in other sports, while three-way betting is only good for full time. 

Favorites to Advance to the Semifinals

France is the biggest favorite to advance to the semifinals, while England has the shortest odds of the favorites.

Underdogs Offering Betting Value

The best value among the underdogs probably lies with Morocco. They have a real chance of knocking off favorites France because of their play style. Norway stands a good chance of beating England too, as the Three Lions have a major problem at right back.

World Cup Quarterfinal Predictions and Best Betting Angles

France has been the most impressive team so far, but Morocco might have the key to upsetting the French. That’s why the first of my World Cup Quarterfinals predictions has Morocco stunning France 2-1 in extra time after a 1-1 draw in the first 90 minutes.

At this point, Spain have made it clear who they are in this tournament. La Roja want to use tiki-taka to control the game and grind out low-scoring victories. It’s not pretty, but it works, and that’s why I’ll take Spain to win 1-0 for the third time at this World Cup.

The other upset I like is Norway over England. Every single Norway match has gone over the total, and I believe we will see at least three goals in this match, so I will parlay Norway and the Over in the penultimate match of the Quarterfinals.

Finally, Argentina to win in full time is a great bet as the defending champions have now had their scare. The match against Egypt was a wake-up call, and I expect Argentina to control the game from the outset against Switzerland.

Historical Quarterfinal Trends Worth Tracking

Gareth Southgate slew some of the demons that have been haunting England for decades, but the Three Lions will certainly be nervous if the match goes to penalties. England were infamously eliminated from the World Cup on penalties in 1990, 1998, and 2006. The only team with a worse record than England in penalties is Spain. La Roja are 1-4 in penalty shootouts at the World Cup.

Markets Beyond the Match Winner

There are several other ways to bet on the World Cup, including various prop bets for every match.

 World Cup Quarterfinal Dates and Road to the Semifinals

The World Cup quarterfinal dates will highlight four matches over three days. France and Morocco will meet on Thursday, July 9, with the winner facing either Spain or Belgium. Spain and Belgium will square off on Friday, July 10.

The second semifinal will feature the winners of the two matches taking place on Saturday, July 11. England will face Norway in the earlier match, while Argentina will take on Switzerland in the final match of the quarterfinals.