2026 Home Run Derby Predictions, Odds & Lineup

The 2026 MLB Home Run Derby takes place Monday, July 13, at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The competition begins at 8 p.m. ET, with Netflix coverage starting at 7 p.m. ET. For the first time, the Derby will stream live on Netflix after more than three decades as an ESPN event. If Kyle Schwarber is added to the field, as expected, he would be the favorite in Home Run Derby odds.

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This year’s competition will also look different on the field. MLB has removed the timer that had governed the event since 2015 and replaced it with a swing-based format. Each hitter receives 20 swings in the opening round, followed by 15 swings in the semifinals and 15 in the final. Every swing counts, whether the ball leaves the park or not.

Six of the eight places in the field have been confirmed. Bryce Harper will compete in front of the Philadelphia crowd, while 2025 runner-up Junior Caminero returns for another chance at the title. Ben Rice, Jordan Walker, Willson Contreras, and Jac Caglianone are also in the field.

Citizens Bank Park should provide a strong setting for the MLB Home Run Derby. Statcast ranked it as the fifth-best home run park in baseball, and its short foul-line distances could reward hitters who consistently pull the ball.

Confirmed Participants & Top Contenders

Official 2026 Field of Players

Six players have officially accepted invitations, leaving two open spots in the eight-man field:

• Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies.
• Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays.
• Ben Rice, New York Yankees.
• Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals.
• Willson Contreras, Boston Red Sox.
• Jac Caglianone, Kansas City Royals.

Harper brings the strongest Derby résumé among the confirmed MLB Home Run Derby participants. He finished second in 2013 and won the 2018 competition at Nationals Park, defeating Kyle Schwarber in the final. Harper now has a chance to become the fifth multi-time champion and the first player to win twice in his home ballpark.

Caminero is another obvious contender after finishing second to Cal Raleigh in 2025. He also entered this year’s field with 27 home runs and already has experience handling the pressure of the event.

Rice had 28 home runs and some of the strongest batted-ball indicators in baseball. Walker had 22 homers, a .294 average, and an MLB-leading 70 RBI. Contreras had 20 home runs in his first season with Boston, while Caglianone had 14, including six during a recent five-game stretch.

Key Sluggers & Notable Snubs

Kyle Schwarber remains the biggest unconfirmed name. He had 32 home runs, three more than any other major league player, and Phillies interim manager Don Mattingly appeared to suggest that Schwarber planned to participate. Schwarber has not officially announced his entry, so he cannot yet be listed in the field.

Mike Trout is unlikely to participate after returning from a hamstring injury on July 8. Yordan Alvarez is also expected to skip the event after dealing with batting-related injuries last year.

Citizens Bank Park Stadium Dimensions & Ballpark Factors

Citizens Bank Park is one of baseball’s better settings for power. Statcast rated it as the fifth-best home run park in the majors, and its 2025 home run park factor was 114, with 100 representing league average. The run factor was 101, while the hit factor was exactly 100.

The Home Run Derby stadium is not symmetrical, so different hitters will face different challenges depending on where they naturally drive the ball.

• Left field: 329 feet down the line and 374 feet to the power alley.
• Center field: 401 feet straightaway, with Monty’s Angle ranging from 409 feet to 372 feet.
• Right field: 330 feet down the line and 369 feet to the power alley.

How the Philadelphia Venue Impacts Power Hitters

The shorter distances down both foul lines could help hitters who consistently pull the ball. Left-handed sluggers such as Harper and Rice may be able to target the 330-foot right-field line, while right-handed hitters can attack the 329-foot mark in left.

Center field is more demanding at 401 feet, and Monty’s Angle creates an irregular area just left of straightaway center. Wall heights also vary throughout the outfield, ranging from roughly 6 to 19 feet. The venue should still produce plenty of home runs, but the easiest path will likely come from hitters who can repeat their pull-side swing without wasting attempts toward the deepest part of the park.

Home Run Derby Format & Rules Explanation

The Home Run Derby format changes significantly in 2026. The timer is gone, and every participant now works with a fixed number of swings. The opening round gives each of the eight hitters 20 swings. The semifinals and final give each remaining hitter 15 swings.

Every swing counts against the total, whether it produces a home run, a foul ball, or a ball that stays in the park. There is one exception. A hitter who homers on his final allotted swing can continue until he fails to hit another home run.

Timing, Bonus Rounds, and Bracket Structure

There is no timer, no bonus round, and no opening-round bracket. All eight hitters compete in a single first-round pool. The four highest home run totals advance and are seeded based on their results.

The No. 1 seed faces No. 4 in one semifinal, while No. 2 meets No. 3 in the other. The two semifinal winners advance to the final.

Tiebreakers and Scoring Regulations

First-round ties are decided by longest home run distance. If two hitters finish tied in a semifinal or the final, they enter a three-swing swing-off. Additional three-swing rounds continue until the tie is broken.

So, how does the Home Run Derby work in 2026? It rewards both power and efficiency. Hitters can no longer make up for missed swings by working faster. Every attempt matters, which could favor players with repeatable batting-practice swings and reliable pitch placement from their chosen thrower.

2026 Home Run Derby Odds, Predictions & Best Bets

Current Betting Field & Favorites to Win

Based on the six confirmed participants, Junior Caminero and Bryce Harper should be among the early favorites. Caminero finished second in 2025 and has already shown that his power translates to this event. Harper has two previous Derby appearances, a championship, and the advantage of competing in his home ballpark.

Ben Rice also belongs near the top group. His left-handed power should fit Citizens Bank Park, particularly toward the shorter right-field line. Jordan Walker brings a strong combination of current production and raw power, while Willson Contreras and Jac Caglianone enter as less established Derby options.

Kyle Schwarber would change the betting field immediately if he is officially added. He led the majors with 32 home runs and has previous Derby experience, including a runner-up finish to Harper in 2018. If Schwarber joins, he would likely become the betting favorite.

Expert Predictions: Best Bet & Dark Horse Value

Best bet among confirmed participants: Junior Caminero. His 2025 runner-up finish gives him recent experience under Derby pressure, and he enters with enough current power to justify favorite status.

Top challenger: Bryce Harper. He knows how to win this event and will have the Philadelphia crowd behind him.

Dark horse: Jordan Walker. His breakout season, 22 home runs, and MLB-leading 70 RBI give him a strong profile at what could be a longer price.

The best overall prediction remains conditional. Caminero is the preferred choice from the confirmed field, but Schwarber would become the selection if he officially enters.

How to Watch the Home Run Derby Live

Fans looking for where to watch Home Run Derby coverage will need Netflix in 2026. After more than three decades on ESPN, the event is officially moving to the streaming service for the first year of a three-year media rights agreement with Major League Baseball.

Netflix coverage begins Monday, July 13, at 7 p.m. ET. The Derby itself is scheduled to start at 8 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.

TV Broadcast & Streaming Platforms

The 2026 event will stream live on Netflix rather than air through the traditional ESPN television presentation. That is the biggest viewing change surrounding this year’s competition.

For fans wondering how to watch Home Run Derby action, the process is straightforward. Open Netflix on a compatible television, streaming device, computer, tablet, or phone and select the live event. Viewers can also set a reminder through Netflix before coverage begins.

No separate traditional television network has been confirmed in the material provided. The key information is that Netflix is the official live home for the 2026 Derby, with coverage beginning one hour before the first hitter steps in.

The move comes alongside MLB’s broader agreement with Netflix, which also includes other select league events. For the Derby, it marks the end of a long ESPN run and creates a very different viewing experience for one of the most popular nights of All-Star Week.

History of Past Home Run Derby Champions

The MLB Home Run Derby history dates to 1985 and includes several changes in format, field size, and television presentation. The event has produced repeat champions, record-setting rounds, and memorable home-ballpark victories.

Cal Raleigh is the defending champion after defeating Junior Caminero 18-15 in the 2025 final at Truist Park. Raleigh became the first catcher to win the event and advanced from the opening round through a longest-home-run tiebreaker decided by less than an inch.

Philadelphia previously hosted the Derby at Veterans Stadium in 1996. Barry Bonds defeated Mark McGwire after hitting three consecutive home runs with one out remaining in the final. No Phillies player won that night.

Recent Home Run Derby Champions

Among the recent Home Run Derby winners shown, Pete Alonso is the only one who has won the event more than once, having also taken the 2019 title. Bryce Harper can join the group of multi-time champions if he wins in Philadelphia.

The event has also produced some enormous individual totals. Julio Rodríguez set the single-round record with 41 home runs in 2023, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit a record 91 over the full 2019 competition. Pete Alonso holds the career Derby record with 207 home runs.

The Phillies have produced two champions. Bobby Abreu won in 2005, and Ryan Howard followed in 2006. Neither victory came in Philadelphia. Harper won at his home stadium in 2018, but he represented the Washington Nationals at the time.