Daily Soccer Predictions: Today’s Games & Results

Matchday 3 in the Premier League is jam packed with action on Saturday. There will be seven Premier League soccer games on September 5, putting 14 of England’s top 20 teams in action on that day. League leader Manchester City are the biggest favorites on Saturday according to the oddsmakers, as the Citizens are expected to make quick work of newly promoted Coventry City.

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Soccer Games Today: Full Daily Schedule

Although most of the Premier League teams will be on the pitch this Saturday, four of the top five title contenders will play on either Friday or Sunday. Liverpool will be in action on Friday, and fans will get their first look at newly acquired Bradley Barcola. Meanwhile, Manchester United will play in the early game on Sunday, while Chelsea and Arsenal face off in the London Derby in the final game of Matchday 3.

Today’s Featured Soccer Games

Newcastle United vs. AFC Bournemouth, 7:30 a.m. ET (USA)

Brentford FC vs. Sunderland AFC, 10 a.m. ET (Peacock)

Nottingham Forest vs. Tottenham Hotspur, 10 a.m. ET (Peacock)

Fulham FC vs. Crystal Palace, 10 a.m. ET (Peacock)

Manchester City vs. Coventry City, 10 a.m. ET (USA)

Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Leeds United, 10 a.m. ET (Peacock)

Hull City vs. Aston Villa, 12:30 p.m. ET (NBC)

Soccer Predictions & Best Matches to Watch

There’s a lot of value this week if you have been keeping an eye on teams’ early season performances. Some lines will be inflated due to major moves before the transfer window closes, but none of those players are likely to make a big impact in their debut. That gives bettors some ways to take advantage with their soccer predictions this weekend.

Top Picks for Today’s Soccer Games

One of my favorite bets this week is AFC Bournemouth +221 on the three-way line on the road against Newcastle United. The Cherries are incredibly unlucky to have just one point through two matches, as they were ahead of Manchester City 1-0 in the 83^rd minute before surrendering two goals in seven minutes. Bournemouth more than held their own against the Premier League’s perennial powerhouse over the last decade, and they deserved at least a result.

Bournemouth looked set to earn three points at home against Everton last week until James Tarkowski scored in injury time to give the Toffees a draw. The Cherries had a 2.17 xG in that match, but they were unable to score more than once, and that hurt them in the end. Those results have led to them being undervalued coming into this week’s match with Newcastle United.

The Magpies are receiving a lot of love in the United States after earning a draw against Liverpool and beating Tottenham Hotspur 2-0 on the road last week. Newcastle United led Liverpool for nearly the entire match, but the Reds had a 2.73 xG compared to a 1.43 xG for the Magpies. Similarly, Spurs won the possession battle and had 1.04 xG compared to 0.75 xG for Newcastle.

Newcastle United are not as good as their prior results indicate, while Bournemouth should definitely have more than a single point. The Cherries should be closer to even in this match, and there is value in Bournemouth on both the three-way line and the Asian Handicap.

Elsewhere, Hull City are also a great value at +327 on the three-way line at home against Aston Villa. The Tigers are one of the four Premier League teams that won their first two matches, and they looked great at home against Manchester United in their opener. Hull City did not look nearly as good last week against Coventry City, as they were outplayed for long stretches until Liam Millar rescued the visitors with an 82^nd minute goal.

Aston Villa are in disarray at the moment. They sold many of their stars over the summer as they needed to get in compliance with UEFA guidelines. Villa did add some much needed help at the transfer deadline to try and replace what they had lost after suffering two defeats to start the campaign, but Unai Emery has his work cut out for him. This team should not be a road favorite until they prove themselves on the pitch, so I will happily take the Hull City Tigers to win this match outright.

Key Factors Behind Predictions

One of my key tenets in sports betting is to zig when others zag. There is no value in going with the herd, so it’s usually a good thing to be a contrarian. Aston Villa will probably right the ship, but it’s way too early to make that assumption. Meanwhile, it’s clear to me that Bournemouth are very undervalued considering how they have played through their first two matches.

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Soccer Stats That Matter Today

Most models favor possession-based metrics when it comes to soccer stats. Futi and other analytic models have seen what made Spain and Pep Guardiola so successful, and they have employed that same thought process in their calculations.

Expected goals (xG) is another very important statistic. It is a quick shorthand to see the flow of the game and which team created more chances, and it can help determine if teams have been lucky or unlucky in their recent outings.

Team Performance Trends

There’s not a lot to discuss when it comes to recent performances when it is this early in the season. At this point, all 20 Premier League teams have played just two league games, and 11 of those 20 teams played their first games in the Carabao Cup. A few teams have been taking part in lower-level European competitions too, but fatigue shouldn’t be too much of a factor yet.

Key Metrics to Watch

Possession and xG are the two metrics that analysts rely on the most to tell the story of a match.

Top Soccer Players to Watch Today

Several soccer players could see their first action for their new clubs this weekend as it was a very intense transfer deadline. Manchester City were especially busy as they spent over €300 million to acquire Enzo Fernandez, Ayyoub Bouaddi, and Iliman Ndiaye over the last week. Fernandez and Ndiaye can be seen as addition by subtraction too as Fernandez was acquired from league rival Chelsea, while Ndiaye was signed from Everton.

Star Players in Action

Erling Haaland already has two goals in two matches for Manchester City this season. The Golden Boot favorite has the potential to bag a bevy of goals against Coventry City this week too, as the Sky Blues have one of the worst back lines in the Premier League.

Haaland’s teammate Rayan Cherki is another player to keep an eye on after earning Man of the Match accolades in each of Manchester City’s first two games. Cherki came off the bench to provide both assists in the 2-0 win over Bournemouth, and he notched a brace in the Citizens’ 4-1 win over Crystal Palace last week.

Impact Players & Rising Stars

Hull City’s Lucas Herrington is one of the most phenomenal stories coming into this season. Herrington was a lightly regarded 18-year-old defender for the Brisbane Roar that was acquired by the Colorado Rapids for $900,000 back in January. He went on to shine for the Rapids and was selected to the MLS All-Star Team ahead of the World Cup. Herrington raised his profile even more as a lynchpin in defense for Australia this summer, leading to the Tigers spending €14.8 million to acquire him from the MLS. He has come off the bench in each of Hull City’s first two games as the club tries to prepare him for the Premier League, and he turns 19 years old on Saturday.

Soccer Stadiums Hosting Today’s Games

Manchester City’s Etihad Stadium and Newcastle United’s St. James’ Park are the most famous soccer stadiums that will see Premier League action this Saturday. Brentford’s Gtech Community Stadium, Brighton’s AMEX Stadium, Fulham’s Craven Cottage, Nottingham Forest’s The City Ground, and Hull City’s The MKM Stadium will also host matches.

Notable Venues Today

The Etihad provides Manchester City with a great home field advantage, and that’s part of the reason why the Citizens are favored by multiple goals on the Asian Handicap line. St. James’ Park’s historic homefield edge has influenced the odds for Newcastle United too, but the Magpies were boom or bust here last season with 10 wins and 7 losses at home.

Home Advantage Insights

Fulham enjoys a comparatively huge edge playing in Craven Cottage. The Cottagers were dominant at the cozy site last year, winning a whopping 11 of their 19 home games. That gave them the sixth best home record in the Premier League last season. Brighton and Hove Albion had a big edge at home too with a 9-6-4 record in AMEX Stadium, while Brentford were a very respectable 8-8-3 on their own turf. Conversely, Nottingham Forest won just four matches at home last year and were almost relegated due to their inability to win at home.

Public Betting Trends & Match Insights

Expect a lot of parlays involving Manchester City this week as many bettors will see the Citizens as a small multiplier on their other action.

Public Action Overview

The games televised on US networks will see more bets as players look to cash in early before the first big college football Saturday of the year.

Situational Angles

Don’t be surprised to see a lot of public money come in on Manchester City and Newcastle United as bettors do like to back home favorites that are big brands regardless of the sport.

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