ESPN College Football Predictions: Week 3 Odds & Best Bets

The college football world is still buzzing after Texas’ comeback win over Ohio State in Austin on Saturday night. The Longhorns were trailing the Buckeyes 23-3 in the fourth quarter, but Ohio State’s defense collapsed in the final frame. Texas went on a 15-play, 91-yard touchdown drive followed by a 13-play, 72-yard touchdown drive before Hollywood Smothers found the end zone with 25 seconds left to cap off a 12-play, 73-yard touchdown drive.

That may have upset my College Football Predictions last week, as I had Ohio State defeating Texas, but I didn’t have too bad of a week. Louisiana Tech covered the Betcris Arizona college football odds against LSU, Iowa State nearly knocked off Iowa, and Texas A&M obliterated Arizona State.

Featured ESPN College Football Games This Week

Lane Kiffin will be at the center of the college football world on Saturday. College Gameday will be in Oxford, Mississippi, to see Kiffin’s LSU Tigers face his former team, the Ole Miss Rebels. The rivalry between these SEC West teams is burning red hot after Kiffin strung Ole Miss along while planning to move to LSU at the conclusion of last season. We will have college football game predictions for that Top 10 showdown and more.

There are plenty of other NCAA football predictions too. This could be a great week for underdogs, as there are a whopping 36 FBS teams favored by at least 20 points.

Matchups with the Biggest National Attention

The storylines for the Ole Miss-LSU game will make it the highest-rated game of Week 3. The Grove will be electric all-day Saturday, and this game is expected to be competitive with the oddsmakers listing the Tigers as a 3-point road favorite.

Lone Star State rivals will meet in Lubbock on Friday night as Texas Tech welcomes Houston to town. These Big 12 foes are both ranked in the Top 25, and it is just one of three games between ranked opponents this week.

Louisville will host SMU in the final game between ranked foes this week. This game is essentially a pick ‘em, but it’s essentially a must-win for the Cardinals if they hope to make the College Football Playoff after a season-opening loss to Ole Miss.

Games That Could Impact the Rankings

Alabama is ranked in the Top 10 after a 2-0 start. Now, the Crimson Tide will take on the team that stunned them to start last season. Florida State knocked off Alabama 31-17 as a two-touchdown underdog per the CFB betting odds in Doak Campbell Stadium to kick off last year. That eventually led to a Top 10 ranking for the Seminoles before they collapsed and failed to finish with a winning record once again. Kalen DeBoer would love nothing more than to hammer Florida State at home after last season’s debacle.

You might think there is a lot of history between neighboring programs Virginia and West Virginia, but the Cavaliers and Mountaineers haven’t met on the gridiron since 2002 and have only played three times since 1984. These teams will be playing a neutral site game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina, and a win for No. 25 Virginia will give the Wahoos a safer place in the Top 25.

If Florida can knock off Auburn on Saturday night, the Gators will probably move into the Top 25 too. Florida cruised to easy wins against Florida Atlantic and FCS Campbell, but this program has had a ton of problems at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

ESPN NCAAF Picks & Predictions

There are a lot of underdogs in my college football picks this week. Some of these spreads are simply way too high, especially considering most teams will kick off conference play next week.

Predicted Winners

I’m going to back Ole Miss in its titanic tilt with LSU on Saturday night. The Tigers looked fantastic in their season opener against Clemson, but it’s clear that Dabo Swinney’s program has taken a big step backwards. The Rebels have a more proven quarterback in Trinidad Chambliss, and Kewan Lacy is one of the top running backs in the country.

The only favorite that I really like this week is Alabama as a 20-point favorite over Florida State. The Seminoles have been in a slow tailspin since they were robbed of a spot in the 2023 College Football Playoff, and there is a toxicity surrounding the program. Florida State finally fired its Athletic Director, and boosters are actively passing the hat to pay Mike Norvell’s enormous buyout. The Crimson Tide will not overlook the Seminoles after last season, and they outscored East Carolina and Kentucky by a combined margin of 93-27.

Potential Upsets to Watch

Alex Golesh knows what it takes to beat Florida. Golesh was the head coach of South Florida last season, and he led the Bulls to an 18-16 upset over the Gators in The Swamp. That victory was one of the reasons why Auburn hired Golesh to replace Hugh Freeze. Golesh knows how to win ugly, and I believe that the Tigers will upset the Gators as a short home underdog.

Games That Could Be Closer Than Expected

Oklahoma State is too big of a favorite after last week’s monumental upset of Oregon. The Cowboys are a 56.5-point favorite over FCS Murray State, and that’s simply too many points with a road game against West Virginia on tap next Saturday.

I’m still a believer in Rutgers although the Scarlet Knights are off to a bad start. They have shown they can move the ball, but turnovers killed them in losses to UMass and Boston College. USC is a 24.5-point road favorite over Rutgers on Saturday afternoon, but I think the Scarlet Knights will cover as the Trojans are certainly looking ahead to a showdown with USC next Saturday in the Los Angeles Coliseum.

Finally, I like Michigan State to cover the number on the road against No. 3 Notre Dame. The Spartans are 2-0 with wins over Toledo and Eastern Michigan, as Pat Fitzgerald is turning the program around just like he did at Northwestern. Notre Dame isn’t a team that runs up the score, and the Fighting Irish finished with just 350 total yards in their opener against Wisconsin.

ESPN NCAAF Odds & Betting Preview

The college football odds highlight some pretty large spreads once again this week as most teams are still playing non-conference opponents. We only saw a handful of upsets in Week 1, but that could change this week.

Friday, September 18

Wake Forest +20.5 vs. Miami (FL), O/U 55.5 (ESPN)

Texas Tech -7.5 vs. Houston, O/U 52.5 (FOX)

Saturday, September 19

Arkansas +24.5 vs. Georgia, O/U 54.5 (ABC)

Kansas State -20.5 vs. Tulane, O/U 49.5 (ESPN2)

Clemson -3.5 vs. North Carolina, O/U 43.5 (ESPN)

Texas A&M -16.5 vs. Kentucky, O/U 49.5 (ESPN)

Alabama -19.5 vs. Florida State, O/U 48.5 (ABC)

Rutgers +24.5 vs. USC, O/U 59.5 (CBS)

Louisville -1.5 vs. SMU, O/U 59.5 (ESPN2)

South Carolina -4 vs. Mississippi State, O/U 58.5 (SEC Network)

Auburn +2.5 vs. Florida, O/U 53.5 (ESPN)

Notre Dame -29.5 vs. Michigan State, O/U 52.5 (NBC)

Ole Miss +3 vs. LSU, O/U 59.5 (ABC)

Oklahoma -22.5 vs. New Mexico, O/U 46.5 (ESPN2)

Sacramento State +27.5 vs. North Dakota State, O/U 51.5 (ESPN)

How the Betting Markets Compare

There has been some significant line movement in the Friday night games. Miami (FL) opened as a 23.5-point favorite on the road against Wake Forest, and Texas Tech opened as a 9.5-point home favorite against Houston. We have seen a sizable amount of action on the underdogs since the CFB betting odds were released on Sunday afternoon.

Factors That Could Move the Odds

Surprise suspensions and injury announcements can always move the odds, but it might be good to keep an eye on social media for potential disruptions in travel plans this season. We have already seen that affect a few teams, and the sharp increase in gas prices could make some smaller programs change plans.

Final ESPN College Football Predictions

Of all the potential college football upset picks this week, the only one I really like is Auburn over Florida. Georgia State to beat UCF is another one to watch though if you are feeling like taking a bigger underdog. The Knights’ starting quarterback Alonza Barnett III will miss multiple weeks with a hamstring injury, and Scott Frost is no longer the quarterback guru he was in his previous tenure.

Biggest Takeaways Before Game Day

This is a great week to back underdogs given the number of big spreads on the board. I don’t believe we will see a major upset, but I do think we will see plenty of covers.

Games Worth Following This Week

Ole Miss and LSU will take up a lot of the oxygen in the room this week, but there are some other interesting clashes. Clemson will face North Carolina in what could be a must-win game for Dabo Swinney, and there are two intriguing games on Friday night.

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