Florida State vs. SMU Predictions, Odds & Best Bets

College football’s Labor Day Weekend extravaganza will conclude on Monday night when the Florida State Seminoles host the SMU Mustangs. Florida State is 1-0 since the Seminoles were one of the handful of teams that took part in Week 0, while SMU will be the last team to start its 2026 season. Although this game is in Tallahassee, the Mustangs are slight favorites per the college football betting odds.

SMU has lofty aspirations under fifth-year head coach Rhett Lashlee. Some pundits thought that the Mustangs would struggle after moving from the AAC to the ACC two years ago, but Lashlee is 20-7 and 14-2 in conference play. He led the Mustangs to the 2024 College Football Playoff, and SMU was able to upset eventual runner-up Miami last year.

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Florida State Seminoles vs. SMU Mustangs Game Preview

Florida State was not very impressive in its season opener against New Mexico State. The Seminoles were a 30-point favorite per the CFB betting line against the Aggies, but they were only able to pull out a 34-17 victory. New quarterback Ashton Daniels misfired multiple times and was less than crisp, completing just 17 of 27 passes for 202 yards with a touchdown and an interception.

Fortunately, the Seminoles were able to avoid another embarrassment under Mike Norvell thanks to a strong performance from the offensive line. Florida State ran the ball 39 times for 217 yards and three touchdowns, controlling the clock and keeping the team ahead of schedule in down and distance scenarios.

Defensively, Florida State was able to bottle up New Mexico State’s ground game. However, Furman transfer Trey Hedden had a considerable amount of success through the air. Hedden completed 26 of 42 passes for 272 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.

SMU has yet to take the field, but the Mustangs are currently 25^th in SP+ Rankings. They are very balanced with a top 30 offense and a top 30 defense, but the special teams are a potential problem area. The Mustangs’ two kickers combined to make just 7 of 15 field goals from 40 yards or longer last season, so the program brought in one of the top kickers at the FCS level. Nick Reed hit six 50+ yard field goals with New Hampshire last season, and he hit many of those kicks in bad weather.

This offense should be one of the best in the ACC once again as 10 of the 11 projected starters are upperclassmen. Kevin Jennings is entering his third season as SMU’s starting pivot, and he has done an excellent job running Lashlee’s Air Raid scheme. Jennings makes good reads and doesn’t rely too much on any one target, spreading the wealth. The addition of transfer running back Kendrick Raphael figures to help too.

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Florida State Seminoles vs. SMU Mustangs Predictions

In the past, Doak Campbell Stadium was a tough environment for visitors. Nowadays, Florida State has fallen on hard times and is not nearly as formidable of an opponent. The Seminoles have lost at least six games in seven of their last nine seasons with the 2022 and 2023 campaigns being the outliers.

Mike Norvell signed a massive long-term extension with the program after Florida State went 13-1 in 2023. The Seminoles came to immediately regret that though. Florida State posted a 2-10 record in 2024, suffering the biggest single season collapse in college football history. Now, the Seminoles are effectively stuck with Norvell for the foreseeable future as they have been unable to raise the money to pay his buyout.

That has significantly diminished Florida State’s home field advantage. Even when Florida State does have a full house, the fans are continually on edge as the Seminoles are a lowly 3-13 in ACC play over the last two seasons. Accordingly, opponents no longer have to fear crowd noise as they did in the past, and the home field advantage can work against the Seminoles if they get off to a rocky start.

SMU was not great on the road last season. The Mustangs went just 3-3 away from home, as they suffered losses to TCU, Wake Forest, and California. The defense allowed over 500 yards in a 35-24 loss to archrival TCU for the Iron Skillet. SMU was a short favorite on the road against the Demon Deacons but lost 13-12 despite Wake Forest turning the ball over five times. The Mustangs turned the ball over three times themselves and mustered just 246 total yards of offense.

In their regular season finale against Cal, they suffered their toughest loss yet, falling 38-35 with a spot in the ACC Championship Game on the line. SMU was a two-touchdown favorite in that game per the football betting line, but the offense got out to a slow start and the defense was unable to stop the Golden Bears on their final drive after the Mustangs rallied back from a 17-point fourth quarter deficit.

Despite SMU’s road woes last season, I like the Mustangs to cover the three points against the Seminoles in Tallahassee on Labor Day.

Florida State Seminoles vs. SMU Mustangs Betting Tips

SMU was originally a 2.5-point favorite per the opening college football odds, but that line has ticked up slightly in the aftermath of Florida State’s underwhelming win last Saturday. Ashton Daniels did not look too dangerous under center for the Seminoles, but the onus will be on him to move the ball through the air even though SMU plays a 4-2-5.

The Mustangs were excellent at stopping the run last season. Opponents averaged just 3.2 YPC against this front, and SMU was able to get to the quarterback and create turnovers. However, this was one of the worst pass defenses in all of FBS in 2025. SMU allowed 286.4 YPG through the air, ranking 134^th out of 136 teams in this department.

That is likely to lead to higher totals for Ashton Daniels’ player props. Daniels didn’t have much success in the passing game in previous stops at Stanford or Auburn though, and he was benched in his start against SMU with Stanford in 2024. In that game, Daniels completed just 2 of 5 passes for 20 yards in three series before giving way to Elijah Brown in a 40-10 blowout.

Kevin Jennings figures to have more success, especially due to the perceived problems with FSU’s secondary. The Seminoles looked shaky in the back last week, and they have really struggled to recruit defensive backs in recent years. Florida State was DB U in the 2010s with standouts like Jalen Ramsey, Xavier Rhodes, and Derwin James, but this program has not fared well in this department since losing Travis Hunter as a recruit to Deion Sanders and Jackson State.

SMU -3 is the best bet for a side in this game, and Over 53.5 is a decent bet when it comes to the total. Lashlee is likely to have cooked up a very special scheme for the Seminoles in Week 1, and he saw some of this unit’s flaws last week against New Mexico State. The Mustangs don’t have to worry about saving something for their following game either as they will take on UC Davis next Saturday.

Florida State Seminoles vs. SMU Mustangs Head-To-Head and Key Stats

These recent ACC rivals have only met one time before Monday night. That came in 2024 when the Mustangs announced themselves to the rest of the conference in a big way. SMU’s very first ACC game was against Florida State in the Metroplex, and the Mustangs hammered the Seminoles 42-16. D.J. Uiagalelei threw three interceptions as the Seminoles could only muster 13 first downs the entire game. Meanwhile, SMU racked up 458 total yards of offense.

Although SMU went 9-4 SU last year, the Mustangs were just 6-7 ATS. They failed to win three games as an outright favorite, but they were very profitable for Under bettors. The Under went 9-4 in SMU games last season.

As for Florida State, the Seminoles continue to disappoint in all aspects. They went 5-7 ATS and 5-7 SU last season, and that was an improvement from a disastrous 2024 campaign that saw FSU go 2-10 SU and 4-8 ATS. Florida State was able to cover double-digit spreads at home against Virginia Tech and Wake Forest last season, but they failed to win a single road game.

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