MLB Predictions Today: Picks, Odds & Best Bets for July 16, 2026

Thursday’s MLB schedule contains only one game, but it carries plenty of intrigue. The New York Mets visit the Philadelphia Phillies at 7:10 PM Eastern on ESPN, with Christian Scott confirmed for New York and Philadelphia’s starter still undecided. The Phillies are favored, but that price deserves a closer look because the matchup changes considerably depending on whether Aaron Nola or Jesús Luzardo starts.

 

The MLB Daily Predictions focus on the pitching matchups, recent form, bullpen numbers, and Philadelphia’s strong head-to-head record before identifying the best available betting approach.

Betcris Arizona is offering Same Game Parlays for baseball, giving bettors the option of combining multiple selections from one game into a single wager. The choices could include game result, totals, team props, and more. That gives bettors several ways to approach Thursday’s game. Download the App to get the latest odds.

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Today's MLB Games to Watch

Thursday offers only one matchup, so today's MLB games discussion begins and ends in Philadelphia. The Phillies enter at 54-43 and sit one game behind Atlanta in the National League East. The Mets are 40-57 and last in the division, 14 games behind Philadelphia.

Featured Matchups of the Day

New York sends Christian Scott to the mound. Scott owns a 3.17 ERA with 65 strikeouts in 54 innings. His road work has been especially encouraging, with a 2.79 ERA and 1.10 WHIP across 29 innings. He also faced Philadelphia on June 27 and allowed two earned runs over 4⅓ innings in a 6-2 Mets win.

The larger question is who starts for Philadelphia. Aaron Nola appears to be the most likely option, but Jesús Luzardo remains possible depending on his All-Star Game usage. Nola has a 5.75 ERA and a 6.81 ERA at home. Luzardo has a 3.51 ERA, 136 strikeouts in 110⅓ innings, and allowed one earned run in five innings against New York on June 28.

Games Drawing the Most Betting Attention

With no other MLB games Thursday, this matchup will naturally receive the day’s betting attention. Philadelphia has the better record, home-field advantage, and an 8-2 mark in the past 10 meetings. The Phillies have also won five of six against the Mets this season.

The starting-pitcher announcement remains the biggest factor. A Luzardo start would strengthen Philadelphia’s case. A Nola start would make the Mets more appealing as an underdog because Scott has had the stronger season and he has good road numbers.

MLB Predictions for Today's Biggest Matchups

The central issue for MLB predictions today is whether Philadelphia’s broader team advantages are enough to overcome the uncertainty surrounding its starter. The Phillies have been the better team over the full season, but they did not enter the break in dominant offensive form.

Top Game Predictions

Philadelphia has won 54 games compared with New York’s 40, and the Phillies hold clear advantages in home runs, stolen bases, quality starts, and defensive reliability. Philadelphia has hit 124 home runs, seventh in MLB, while the Mets have hit 112. The Phillies have also committed 47 errors compared with New York’s 65.

The head-to-head results favor Philadelphia as well. The Phillies have won eight of the past 10 meetings, including five of six in 2026. That makes Philadelphia the more likely winner, especially if Luzardo starts.

There are reasons to avoid treating the Phillies as an automatic play. Philadelphia went 5-5 over its final 10 games before the break and scored three runs or fewer seven times. The Mets went 4-6, but Scott enters after throwing five scoreless innings against Kansas City.

The prediction is a close Philadelphia win, with the level of confidence tied directly to the starter. Luzardo would give the Phillies the stronger overall pitching setup. Nola would create a much more even matchup and could shift the starting-pitching advantage toward New York.

Potential Upsets Worth Watching

The Mets are the only upset candidate on Thursday, and their case begins with Scott. He has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched, owns a 3.17 ERA, and has already pitched effectively against Philadelphia.

New York also holds a bullpen advantage based on the supplied season numbers. The Mets have a 4.01 bullpen ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Philadelphia’s bullpen has a 4.44 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.

A Mets upset becomes much more realistic if Nola starts. Nola has allowed 20 home runs in 97 innings, and Philadelphia lost both of his final two starts before the break. If Luzardo gets the assignment, the upset case weakens because he has allowed only nine home runs and enters after consecutive strong outings.

MLB Odds & Betting Trends Today

The available MLB odds today show Philadelphia favored, but the exact price is unknown because Philly’s starter was not yet listed. Bettors should check the confirmed starter and current number before placing any wager. The Betcris Arizona MLB odds page can be used to review the latest market once the matchup is fully posted.

Opening Lines and Market Movement

There is not enough reliable information to state where this game opened or whether the line has moved in a meaningful direction. The responsible approach is to avoid making a market-movement claim.

The confirmed Philadelphia starter could still affect the betting outlook. Luzardo’s 3.51 ERA and strong recent form would support Philadelphia’s favorite status. Nola’s 5.75 ERA and poor home numbers would make the matchup less comfortable for Phillies backers.

Betting Trends That Could Influence Today's Games

Philadelphia has won eight of the past 10 meetings, while six of those games went over the total. The 2026 season series has produced five Phillies wins in six games, but New York’s only win came with Scott starting.

Recent totals results point in different directions. Six of the Mets’ final 10 games went over, largely because New York allowed 68 runs. Seven of Philadelphia’s final 10 stayed under, and the Phillies scored only 31 runs during that stretch.

Philadelphia’s 36-61 run-line record is another warning. The Phillies may be the more likely winner, but they have not consistently covered the run line.

Best MLB Betting Picks Today

The best MLB betting picks for Thursday require patience because Philadelphia has not confirmed its starter and no reliable total or run-line price is out yet. The moneyline is the only market that can be discussed with reasonable confidence.

Best Moneyline Pick – Philadelphia Phillies moneyline

Philadelphia is the preferred side, but this is not a high-confidence recommendation until the starter is confirmed. The Phillies have the better record, have won eight of the past 10 meetings, and have taken five of six from New York this season.

The pick becomes stronger if Luzardo starts. He has a 3.51 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and 136 strikeouts in 110⅓ innings. He also limited the Mets to one earned run in their previous meeting.

If Nola starts, the recommendation becomes much less appealing. Scott’s 3.17 ERA and strong road splits compare favorably with Nola’s 5.75 ERA and 6.81 home ERA. In that scenario, bettors should avoid paying an inflated price on Philadelphia.

Best Run Line or Total Pick – No play until the starting pitchers are confirmed.

No dependable run-line or total odds were provided, so forcing a second wager would go against the available information. Philadelphia’s poor run-line record makes laying 1.5 runs difficult to support without a favorable price.

The total also depends heavily on the Phillies starter. A Luzardo-Scott matchup would support a lower-scoring outlook. A Nola start would add more risk because of his home ERA and home-run numbers. 

Top MLB Best Bets Before First Pitch

The MLB best bets today come with one clear condition: confirm Philadelphia’s starting pitcher before first pitch. 

Best Bet of the Day

Phillies moneyline, preferably with Luzardo starting

Philadelphia is the more likely winner because of its season record, home-field advantage, and recent control of the series. Luzardo would give the Phillies a stronger starting-pitching case and make this the best available wager.

One Value Pick to Consider

Mets moneyline only if Nola starts

This is a conditional option rather than a firm pregame play. Scott has the better season ERA, the stronger road split, and the better bullpen numbers behind him. If Nola starts and the market still prices Philadelphia as a solid favorite, New York could offer value.

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