Monday Night Football Predictions: Eagles vs. Bears

There are a lot of unknowns ahead of this week’s Monday night football game between the Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles. The biggest question mark revolves around who will be under center for the Bears though. Star quarterback Caleb Williams is considered doubtful due to a hamstring injury, and Tyson Bagent was placed into the concussion protocol on Tuesday.

That means 38-year-old Case Keenum might make his first start since 2023. If Keenum does get the start, it will be the eighth team he has played for since he entered the NFL back in 2012. This quarterback situation does mean there is a bit of an asterisk on our Monday night football predictions if Williams or Bagent starts instead of Keenum.

Check out the latest Betcris Arizona NFL Odds

Monday Night Football Matchup Preview

Although Philadelphia has not looked sharp through its first two games, Chicago’s quarterback woes have ensured that the Eagles are favorites in this NFL Monday night matchup. Case Keenum’s last appearance in a regular season game came on December 24, 2023, when he completed just 11 of 17 passes for 62 yards and two interceptions for the Houston Texans in a 36-22 loss to the Cleveland Browns.

Keenum was pulled in favor of Davis Mills, and Mills led the Texans to two touchdowns in the last seven minutes to make the final score look more competitive.

Case Keenum is 30-36 as a starter in his NFL career, but that overall record is greatly buoyed by a magical run with the Minnesota Vikings in 2017. That was the year of the Minneapolis Miracle (sorry New Orleans Saints fans), and Keenum was 11-3 as the starter after replacing an injured Sam Bradford. Aside from that 2017 season, Keenum is 19-33 as a starting quarterback, completing just 60.9% of his passes for 11,628 yards with 57 touchdowns and 44 interceptions.

Team Records & Recent Form

Philadelphia is sitting atop the NFC East with a 2-0 record, but the Eagles are 0-2 ATS coming into this game. They were 5.5-point home favorites against Washington in Week 1 and escaped with a 24-22 victory after the Commanders’ two-point conversion attempt with a minute left failed. Philadelphia followed that close call up with a narrow road win over lowly Tennessee last Sunday, finding the end zone with nine seconds left to win 24-20 as a 7.5-point favorite.

No offense looked better than Chicago in Week 1. The Bears trounced the Carolina Panthers 59-37 on the road and racked up 552 total yards of offense in the win. That led to wild speculation surrounding this offense, but the Bears fell flat on their collective faces last week against Minnesota. Chicago finished with under 300 total yards in a 9-3 loss, and Caleb Williams injured his hamstring while leading the Bears down the field late in the fourth quarter.

Key Injuries & Roster Updates

There are a few injury concerns for Philadelphia coming into this Monday Night Football game. Running back Saquon Barkley is expected to play through a lingering neck injury, but tight end Dallas Goedert is doubtful due to a sprained MCL. That led the Eagles to re-sign Zach Ertz earlier this week. Guard Landon Dickerson is sidelined for at least the next month after being placed on injured reserve, and starting linebacker Jonathan Greenard is questionable after missing the first two games.

Currently, Caleb Williams is considered doubtful, and Tyson Bagent is listed as questionable. Head coach Ben Johnson said that Case Keenum will be the likely starter during his Wednesday press conference, but that could change prior to kickoff. There are other injury concerns too, as the depth of this defense has been considerably strained with a whopping nine players listed as either out or on injured reserve.

Storylines to Watch

If Case Keenum does indeed get the start for Chicago, that will be the big storyline. Keenum is almost as old as his head coach, but the journeyman is at least familiar with the Bears’ offense after signing with the franchise last March.

The return of Zach Ertz to the City of Brotherly Love is also sure to be mentioned. Ertz was a three-time Pro Bowl tight end and a Super Bowl champion with Philadelphia and played with the Eagles from 2013 to 2021. 

Monday Night Football Odds

Unsurprisingly, the Caleb Williams injury led to a huge swing in the NFL odds for this game. Initially, Chicago was listed as a 1.5-point favorite per the Monday night football odds. Philadelphia is currently favored by 4.5 points due to the Bears’ quarterback injuries, and that line could rise even higher prior to kickoff.

Point Spread Odds

Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 at Chicago Bears

Moneyline Odds

Philadelphia Eagles -230

Chicago Bears +200

Over/Under Odds

Over/Under 41.5 Points

Monday Night Football Predictions

Given the uncertainty surrounding Chicago’s starting quarterbacks, bettors might want to wait before placing their Monday Night Football picks. If Caleb Williams somehow starts, the line in this game will quickly move in favor of the Bears. However, if Tyson Bagent is cleared to play and starts over Case Keenum, I expect Philadelphia to become even more of a favorite after what we have seen from Bagent over his four years with the Bears.

Winner Prediction

Philadelphia Eagles

Score Prediction

Philadelphia Eagles 20, Chicago Bears 14

X-Factor of the Game

One of the big things to consider in this game is Philadelphia’s success on first down and third down. Matt Schultz penned a great piece earlier this week highlighting that the Eagles have the worst early-down offensive success rate in the league. Philadelphia tends to run the ball way too often on first down, and the Eagles have not been very successful running the ball on first and second down.

Conversely, the Eagles have the fourth-best third down conversion rate in the league. Philadelphia is converting 53.1% of its third downs through two games as Jalen Hurts’ big play ability has really helped the team in this area. 

Best Bets for Monday Night Football

Many of my Week 2 Monday night football best bets were dead in the water after Jaxson Dart suffered what turned out to be a season-ending knee injury in the New York Giants’ opening drive against the Los Angeles Rams last week. Fortunately, Davante Adams had a monster game that kept me from losing all of my Player Props. My favorite play this week is Under 41.5 points as Philadelphia’s offense has been erratic and Chicago’s offense is likely to really struggle no matter who is under center.

Best Spread Bet

Philadelphia Eagles -4.5

Best Moneyline Bet

Philadelphia Eagles -230

Best Total Bet

Under 41.5 Points

Monday Night Football Player Props

We won’t see many Monday night football player props for the Chicago Bears until we know a definitive starter. That means we will be focusing on the Philadelphia Eagles for this week’s NFL Player Props. After a fantastic Week 1, I feel a bit chastened following all of my losing Jaxson Dart NFL Props last week, so let’s dig in and get back to finding winners.   

Passing Props

Jalen Hurts has an Over/Under of 216.5 Passing Yards in this game. Hurts threw for 203 yards in Week 1 and passed for 264 yards in last week’s comeback win over Tennessee, so I have a slight lean on the Under here. Philadelphia has been conservative on offense this season, and I believe the Eagles won’t take too many risks in their play calling given Chicago will likely struggle to move the ball on offense.

Rushing Props

The oddsmakers have set Jalen Hurts rushing total at 24.5 Rushing Yards and Saquon Barkley’s rushing total at 71.5 Rushing Yards. Barkley had just four carries for nine yards last week and was adequately spelled by both Tank Bigsby and Will Shipley, so I believe that Nick Sirianni will split the carries more evenly with Barkley dealing with a neck stinger. I will take Barkley Under 71.5 Rushing Yards. 

Receiving Props

DeVonta Smith is the clear top option in the passing game for the Eagles. Smith has been targeted 19 times through two games, seeing over a third of Jalen Hurts’ passing attempts coming his way. Jaylon Johnson is Chicago’s top corner, and he was one of the NFL’s best through his first four seasons, but Johnson has not lived up to his new contract. This secondary really struggled against Bryce Young in Week 1, so I will take Smith over his total here.

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Once again, I am going to take a quarterback here. Although Philadelphia has not used Jalen Hurts as a red zone runner as much as they did earlier in his career, Hurts has run for 63 touchdowns in 95 career games. This offense has had to rely more on his rushing through the first two games, and Hurts has 4 rushing first downs while the Eagles’ running backs have combined for 5 rushing first downs.

Monday Night Football Betting Trends

When it comes to NFL betting trends for Monday Night Football, we have seen both favorites cover with ease in the first two weeks. Kansas City had no trouble covering the number as a short home favorite in Week 1, and the Los Angeles Rams cruised to an easy win in Week 2.

That gives home teams and favorites an NFL ATS record of 2-0 on Monday Night Football this season, but something has to give since the road team is favored this week.

Against the Spread Trends

The Chiefs and Rams combined to cover the spread by 35 points when they hosted Monday Night Football. Both teams dominated their opponents and completely stifled the opposing offense.

Over/Under Trends

The Under is 2-0 in Monday Night Football this season. It was a narrow win for the Under in Week 1, but the Jaxson Dart injury led to last week’s game finishing Under the total by 13.5 points.

Head-to-Head Trends

Chicago has dominated the historic head-to-head series with Philadelphia. The Bears are 30-14-1 against the Eagles, but the Eagles have had more success in the playoffs with a 3-1 record against the Bears in the postseason. Philadelphia won five straight games against Chicago from 2013 to 2022, but the Bears went into Philly and knocked off the Eagles 24-15 last November thanks to a dominant effort from Chicago’s ground game. Kyle Monangai and D’Andre Swift combined to carry the ball 40 times for 255 yards and two touchdowns. 

How to Bet on Monday Night Football

Betting on Monday Night Football is just like betting the NFL on other days. The only thing to keep in mind is that this is the last game of the week, so many bettors will be looking to either solidify their winnings or break even after a bad Sunday.

DOWNLOAD OUR APP TODAY

Keep more winnings, scan or click to get the Betcris Arizona app now!

Understanding NFL Betting Markets

It’s important to watch key numbers in the NFL. Games are very likely to be decided by a single score, so numbers like 3, 4, 6, and 7 are all important. The number 3 is by far the most important number of the bunch, and it takes a lot of action to move a spread onto or off 3.

Tips for Betting Monday Night Football

Chicago’s quarterback situation is the main thing to monitor prior to kickoff on Monday night.

Download the Betcris Arizona app to explore the latest odds, live betting options, player props, and more from your mobile device. Get the app today and stay connected to the action anytime, anywhere.