NFL Week 9: Expert Predictions & Betting Preview

We are now at the halfway point of the NFL football season. The NFL predictions that pegged the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs are looking good in NFL futures, while NFL picks that backed the Philadelphia Eagles or Los Angeles Rams aren’t looking so hot.

Many of the football games this week are expected to be lopsided, but there is plenty of excitement for the Sunday afternoon showdown between Green Bay and New England. The most anticipated game of the week though will be the Monday Night Football showdown between Minnesota and Buffalo with the Bills listed as a road favorite in NFL betting odds.

NFL Games This Week

There will be 15 football games this week as only two teams are on a bye. We will have the first NFL football game in Spain on Sunday morning when the Atlanta Falcons and Cincinnati Bengals square off in Madrid. 

Top NFL Matchups to Watch

Cincinnati survived an upset-minded Tennessee team last week to move to 5-2. The Bengals will head across the pond to take on the Atlanta Falcons in Real Madrid’s famed stadium now. Atlanta is just a half-game behind Carolina in the NFC South, but many NFL predictions will pick against the Falcons after they were shut out by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The only one of the NFL matchups that will pit division leaders against each other this week will set the Carolina Panthers against the Denver Broncos. Denver is riding high after its win over Kansas City on Sunday, while Carolina is looking to get right after losing its last two games.

Finally, the New England Patriots will host the Green Bay Packers in a rematch of Super Bowl XXXI. Both teams are 5-3, but while the Patriots are in second place in the AFC East, the Packers are at the bottom of the difficult NFC North.

Thursday Night Football This Week

The Baltimore Ravens will host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday Night Football this week. This game will kick off at 8:15 p.m. ET on NFL Network, and the Jaguars are a double-digit road favorite in NFL odds due to the Ravens’ quarterback injuries.

Thursday Night Football Matchup Preview

This has the potential to be one of the most lopsided Thursday Night Football games this season. Baltimore won’t have Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley, so the Ravens will be playing on short rest with either third-string Joe Fagnano or recent signing Kedon Slovis under center.

To make matters worse for the Ravens, two of their starting offensive linemen are banged up and questionable to play. Kicker Tyler Loop was just placed on injured reserve too.

Baltimore would love to rely on Derrick Henry and its ground game, but Jacksonville has the best run defense in the league. The Jaguars are allowing just 3.4 YPC and 77.4 YPG this season. That’s a big part of why Jacksonville ranks second in scoring defense, allowing 15.9 PPG through seven games.

The Jaguars aren’t awe inspiring on offense, but this is a solid unit. Jacksonville ranks fifth in scoring offense with 28.0 PPG, and the Jaguars are averaging 8.4 YPA. Trevor Lawrence has looked very good under Liam Coen, and the emergence of Parker Washington as a big play threat has helped this offense tremendously.

Thursday Night Football Predictions & Best Bets

Jacksonville Jaguars 23, Baltimore Ravens 13

There was a lot of buzz about the NFL game tonight before Lamar Jackson suffered another injury. The lookahead lines at BetCris Arizona had Baltimore favored in this game, and the total was set around 50 points.

A lot of the luster is now gone from the NFL matchups in this game. Baltimore is a double-digit home underdog, as the Ravens will be hard-pressed to move the ball with a quarterback that has seen little action on a short week. Still, if you’ve read my picks all year, you know that Underdogs and Unders are the way to go on Thursday Night Football. It is hard to choose a side for the game with so much uncertainty, so I will pass on a spread bet. However, the Under is a solid play since I believe the Jaguars will be content to get a win and won’t want to show too much on a short week.

PASS on Baltimore Ravens +10 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

UNDER 40.5 in Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday Night Football This Week

The Sunday Night Football game this week could be a potential playoff preview as the Chicago Bears welcome the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the Windy City. This game is scheduled to kick off at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.

Sunday Night Football Matchup Preview

Chicago is just a half-game behind Minnesota in the NFC North standings. The Bears have the third-best total offense in the league, racking up 387.3 YPG, as Caleb Williams continues to thrive in Ben Johnson’s offense. They boast a fantastic collection of young, talented receivers in Luther Burden III, Rome Odunze, and Colston Loveland, and the ground game can move the chains. Kyle Monangai might be able to suit up for the first time in a month and is averaging 5.4 YPC, but D’Andre Swift has been able to carry the load in his stead and has found the end zone seven times in Chicago’s last four games.

Tampa Bay made modern day history last week against Atlanta. The Buccaneers were able to knock off the Atlanta Falcons 16-0 without completing a pass. Bucky Irving and Kenny Gainwell combined to run the ball 52 times for 310 yards and a touchdown, while Baker Mayfield only attempted three passes in terrible weather.

The Buccaneers allowed a long 76-yard completion to Jahan Dotson, but Michael Penix Jr. had no luck in the passing game otherwise. If you take out that one pass play, Penix completed just 7 of 23 passes for 49 yards and threw four interceptions. That performance bolstered Tampa Bay’s defensive numbers.

Sunday Night Football Predictions & Best Bets

Chicago Bears 30, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Tampa Bay’s defense will have a much tougher time in the NFL matchups here. Weather is not expected to be an issue like we saw last week, and Chicago just proved it can move the ball against an excellent Seattle defense when Caleb Williams is healthy.

Although it sounds like the Bears won’t have Kyle Monangai as Chicago looks to rest him before the bye week, I expect the hosts to move the ball with ease against the Tampa Bay defense. I am tempted to take the Under too, but I believe that the Buccaneers will score late in garbage time to push the total Over the NFL betting number.

CHICAGO -6 in Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

OVER 47.5 in Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Monday Night Football This Week

There is a lot of buzz surrounding the Monday Night Football game this week. The Buffalo Bills will be heading west to face the Minnesota Vikings on MNF tonight in a battle of the only two teams that are 0-4 in their Super Bowl appearances. This game will kick off at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN and ABC.

Monday Night Football Matchup Preview

A lot of the NFL matchups favor the Minnesota Vikings in this game. Minnesota has an elite defense under Brian Flores. The Vikings are allowing an NFL-best 13.3 PPG, and they rank second in both total defense (271.6 YPG) and defensive yards per play (4.7 YPP).

Pressure is one of the keys to this unit’s success. Minnesota ranks first in sack rate, opponent passing yards per game, and opponent completion percentage due to its ability to get to the quarterback. That pressure has also helped the Vikings lead the league in turnover differential through the first half of the season.

Buffalo’s only definitive edge coming into this game is at the most important position in the league. Josh Allen is close to an odds-on favorite to be named NFL MVP this season. Allen is completing 65.9% of his passes and averaging 8.7 YPA with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions. He has only been sacked 13 times due to his mobility, and he is averaging 4.9 YPC with nine rushing touchdowns as Buffalo’s second-leading rusher behind James Cook III.

Monday Night Football Predictions & Best Bets

Minnesota Vikings 20, Buffalo Bills 17

I am going to call for Minnesota to pull off the upset on Monday Night Football behind a strong defensive performance. Although the Vikings might not have starting quarterback Kyler Murray available due to a sore hamstring, veteran Carson Wentz can slide right in and knows his role in this offense. 

Josh Allen hasn’t been sacked that often this season despite being pressured a lot behind an offensive line that has been shaky at times. Minnesota has one of the best home field advantages in the league, and I believe that will cause some issues up front for Buffalo allowing the Vikings to pull off a big win.

MINNESOTA +3 in Minnesota Vikings vs. Buffalo Bills

UNDER 45.5 in Minnesota Vikings vs. Buffalo Bills

NFL Predictions for This Week

We have NFL predictions for about half the games in Week 9 of the season. Unders will be a theme for this week’s picks for NFL games as many teams have serious concerns on offense.

Predictions for the Biggest Games

Atlanta Falcons 24, Cincinnati Bengals 21

Don’t read too much into Atlanta’s loss to Tampa Bay last week. The Falcons weren’t prepared for a rainstorm that completely scuttled the team’s offensive gameplan. Cincinnati’s offense has looked like one of the best in the league so far this season, but offense hasn’t traveled well in the international games yet this year. Only two of the six International Series games this season have had more than 43 total points scored, as offenses are falling out of rhythm with the time changes.

Carolina Panthers 19, Denver Broncos 17

This is a likely letdown spot for Denver. The Broncos are feeling great after knocking off the Kansas City Chiefs last Sunday to move back into first place in the AFC West. However, Denver has not looked great away from home this season with a 2-2 record and those wins came against two of the worst teams in the league. Although the Broncos are 6-2, they have the third-worst yard differential in the league averaging 273.0 YPG on offense while the defense is allowing 355.3 YPG. That’s why one of my top NFL picks this week is Carolina moneyline.

New England Patriots 24, Green Bay Packers 20

The best of the Sunday afternoon NFL matchups this week will feature Green Bay taking on New England. Green Bay will have a few extra days of rest after playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 8, but the Packers have not played well away from Lambeau Field this season. They are 2-2 with an overtime win over the New York Jets and a three-point victory over a Tampa Bay team that was starting an undrafted rookie free agent quarterback.

Potential Upsets This Week

Atlanta stands a good chance of knocking off Cincinnati in the NFL’s first game in Spain this Sunday. The Bengals rank in the bottom five in rush defense, allowing 4.8 YPC, and the Falcons can run the ball extremely well with Bijan Robinson. Although Michael Penix has been hit or miss under center, Robinson is the NFL’s leading rusher with 780 yards and is averaging 5.2 YPC through Atlanta’s first eight games.

I love Carolina as a home underdog in NFL betting odds against Denver this week. The Broncos are extremely overrated, and they have been arguably the most fortunate team in football this season. Bo Nix has been unable to move the ball consistently through the air despite being sacked just 10 times in eight games, and Nix is completing under 60% of his passes for just 6.0 YPA as he is very hesitant to throw the ball down the field or over the middle.

NFL Best Bets Today and This Week

My NFL best bets today will feature Unders and Underdogs. That’s where the value is in the NFL matchups this week as some of the favorites are fortunate to be in the position they are at the halfway point of the season.

Spread and Moneyline Best Bets

The favorite one of my NFL picks this week is Carolina moneyline. Bryce Young doesn’t have the edge on many quarterbacks, but Young has been better than Bo Nix. Denver’s defense has not been nearly as good as expected and has struggled on the road so Carolina moneyline is a great pick.

Another one of my top NFL predictions is Atlanta moneyline. Most bettors tend to have major recency bias, and the Falcons have been lampooned for falling flat last week. However, I believe Atlanta can bounce back in a big way against a Cincinnati defense that has struggled to stop the run. The Bengals allowed the woeful Tennessee Titans to run the ball 28 times for 158 yards last week, and Cam Ward had his best game of the year against the Cincinnati secondary.

Totals and Betting Value

I love a lot of Under plays this week. The Under looks solid in the Atlanta-Cincinnati game since we have seen offenses struggle to find their rhythm when playing in Europe. I also like the Under in Carolina-Denver given what we have seen from the Broncos on the road this season. The Under looks like a good pick in two of the primetime games too as Baltimore and Jacksonville probably won’t combine to produce much offense, and I expect Minnesota’s elite defense to largely shut down Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense.

NFL Picks and Parlays

Thursday, November 5, 2026
UNDER 40.5 in Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Although the total for this game was almost 50 points before Lamar Jackson’s injury, I still expect it to go Under the NFL betting total as Jacksonville won’t take too many risks with its gameplan against a third-string quarterback.

Sunday, November 8, 2026
Atlanta Falcons ML +142 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
UNDER 52.5 in Atlanta Falcons vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Bijan Robinson should be one of the top performing fantasy players in NFL football today. I believe Atlanta will lean heavily on Robinson to control the game and grind clock in a low-scoring Atlanta win.

Carolina Panthers ML +125 vs. Denver Broncos
UNDER 44.5 in Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos

The headliner of my NFL best bets today is Carolina moneyline. Denver is probably the most overrated team in the NFL when you dive into the analytics, and the Broncos have played significantly worse outside of Mile High Stadium.

Chicago Bears -6 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Caleb Williams and the Chicago offense are going to be too much for a Tampa Bay defense that has struggled to stop balanced offenses.

Monday, November 9, 2026
Minnesota Vikings +3 vs. Buffalo Bills
UNDER 45.5 in Minnesota Vikings vs. Buffalo Bills

The last of my NFL picks for Week 9 are Minnesota and the Under. Josh Allen has been amazing, but the Vikings have home field advantage and an elite defense.

NFL Parlay Ideas for the Week

There are slight correlations when betting on Unders and Underdogs, and that is the case for my NFL picks and parlays this week. I believe there are worthwhile parlays on Atlanta and the Under, Carolina and the Under, and Minnesota and the Under this week.

What to Consider Before Building an NFL Parlay

When constructing an NFL parlay, you need to avoid a negative correlation. Favorites should be parlayed with Overs, and Underdogs should be parlayed with Unders. There is a negative correlation if you are betting on a 10-point favorite and an Under in a game, as there are fewer winning final scores.

Key Factors Behind This Week’s NFL Predictions

The NFL predictions this week feature a lot of Unders and Underdogs, but I have explained my positions behind why these are the best NFL picks this week.

Injuries and Player Availability

The NFL football game between Baltimore and Jacksonville this week showcases just how much injuries can move the line. Baltimore was expected to be favored with a healthy Lamar Jackson, but the Ravens will be without Jackson and backup quarterback Tyler Huntley so they are now a double-digit home underdog against the Jaguars.

Rest, Travel and Recent Team Form

The NFL matchups for the Atlanta Falcons are favorable this week. Atlanta is a run-first team that wants to move the chains with Bijan Robinson, and they will have a lot of opportunities to do that against Cincinnati on Sunday. A strong run game travels better than a passing attack when it comes to games on European soil, and that’s something to keep in mind for the remainder of the regular season.

Final NFL Weekly Preview

The NFL best bets today focus on Unders and Underdogs. There is plenty to like on both fronts with the NFL predictions this week, and there are three sets of NFL picks that can be parlayed together against the NFL betting odds at Betcris Arizona to potentially increase your profit.

DOWNLOAD OUR APP TODAY

Keep more winnings, scan or click to get the Betcris Arizona app now!