Patriots vs. Seahawks Predictions, Odds & Best Bets

The 2026 NFL regular season opens with a Super Bowl rematch as the New England Patriots travel to Lumen Field to face the Seattle Seahawks on Wednesday, September 9. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC. Betcris Arizona has Seattle favored by 3.5 points with a total of 44.5 It has been about seven months since Seattle defeated New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX.

The Patriots return with Drake Maye and an upgraded offense featuring A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs. Seattle begins its championship defense with more questions in the backfield after Kenneth Walker III departed and Zach Charbonnet was ruled out for Week 1.

The Seahawks remain the stronger team in terms of the betting market, but New England appears better equipped for this matchup than it was in February.

Download the Betcris Arizona app to explore the latest odds, live betting options, player props, and more from your mobile device. Get the app today and stay connected to the action anytime, anywhere.

New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks Game Preview

Seattle enters the opener with the confidence of a defending champion, but this is not exactly the same team that controlled New England in February. The Seahawks have retained much of their core, while the Patriots spent the offseason addressing several of the areas that contributed to their Super Bowl defeat.

That makes the opener an immediate test for both teams. Seattle gets its first opportunity to show it can remain near the top of the NFC after several personnel changes. New England gets an early chance to determine whether its offensive upgrades can close the gap against the team that ended its championship run.

Seattle Begins Its Super Bowl Defense

Seattle went 14-3 during the 2025 regular season, earned the No. 1 seed in the NFC and completed its playoff run with a 29-13 victory over New England. Much of the championship core remains, giving the Seahawks continuity entering the new season.

There have been meaningful changes, particularly around the running game and defense. Walker left Seattle for Kansas City, while Boye Mafe, Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant also departed. Seattle used its first-round pick on running back Jadarian Price and added Dante Fowler on defense along with several defensive backs.

Price becomes particularly important against New England because Charbonnet is out for the opener. Seattle relied heavily on its running game in the Super Bowl, finishing with 141 rushing yards compared with only 79 for New England. Walker was a major part of that success, which means the Seahawks will have to replace an important element of the offense immediately.

There is also a change on the coaching staff. Brian Fleury takes over the Seattle offense after Klint Kubiak left for Las Vegas. Fleury is expected to run a similar system, but Seattle will still be adjusting to a new offensive coordinator while replacing its Super Bowl MVP at running back.

New England Upgraded the Offense Around Drake Maye

New England made more significant changes after the Super Bowl loss. The Patriots traded for A.J. Brown, signed Romeo Doubs and Alijah Vera-Tucker, and used a first-round pick on offensive lineman Caleb Lomu. They also strengthened the defense with Dre’Mont Jones and Kevin Byard.

Those offensive additions are particularly important against Seattle. The Seahawks sacked Maye six times in the Super Bowl and prevented New England from reaching the red zone until late in the fourth quarter.

Brown gives Maye a powerful No. 1 receiving option who can force Seattle to account for him throughout the field. Doubs provides another established target, while Vera-Tucker and Lomu are part of an effort to improve an offensive line that was overwhelmed in the championship game.

The Patriots do not need a complete offensive transformation to make this game more competitive. Better protection, fewer negative plays and more sustained drives could be enough to keep Seattle from creating the same separation it did in February.

Injuries and Early-Season Questions

New England has been monitoring Christian Gonzalez because of an ankle issue, while Seattle safety Nick Emmanwori has also dealt with an ankle injury. Their availability is worth following leading into kickoff.

The known absence of Charbonnet creates the more immediate lineup issue. Seattle will be asking more from Price in his first regular-season NFL game while attempting to maintain the rushing production that played such a large role in the Super Bowl victory.

New England faces a much tougher road in 2026 after benefiting from an unusually favorable schedule last season. Its opening four-game stretch is particularly difficult, making a road game against the defending champions an immediate indication of how well the Patriots are positioned for another playoff run.

DOWNLOAD OUR APP TODAY

Keep more winnings, scan or click to get the Betcris Arizona app now!

New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks Predictions

The 29-13 Super Bowl result makes Seattle the logical starting point for the prediction, but the rematch should not automatically be viewed as a repeat of February.

New England has changed several important pieces around Maye, while Seattle enters the season without Walker and Charbonnet in the backfield. The Seahawks still have the advantages of playing at Lumen Field, returning much of an excellent defense and knowing their defensive front can create problems for the Patriots.

Can New England Fix Its Super Bowl Problems?

The first question is whether New England can keep Maye comfortable enough to take advantage of its upgraded receiving corps.

Seattle generated six sacks in the Super Bowl and repeatedly put the Patriots behind schedule. New England struggled to finish drives and did not reach the Seattle red zone until late in the fourth quarter. The offseason additions were designed in part to change that.

Brown changes how defenses have to approach New England's passing game, while Doubs gives Maye another established option. Improvements along the offensive line could be even more important. If Vera-Tucker, Lomu and the rest of the unit can give Maye additional time, the Patriots should be able to create more opportunities than they did in February.

Seattle's defense remains the biggest obstacle. The Seahawks lost Mafe and Woolen, but still return enough of the championship group to make New England prove that its offensive changes will translate immediately.

Seattle Faces a Different Offensive Challenge

The bigger change may occur when Seattle has the football. Walker played a major role in the Super Bowl running game, but he is now with Kansas City. Charbonnet's absence creates another problem and puts considerably more responsibility on Price in his NFL regular-season debut.

Seattle's passing attack was not particularly productive against New England in February. Sam Darnold completed 19 of 38 passes for just over 200 yards. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was targeted 10 times but finished with only four catches for 27 yards.

Even Seattle's 29 points require some context. One touchdown followed a fumble recovery that gave the Seahawks favorable field position, while the defense contributed another touchdown with a pick-six.

If New England avoids those costly mistakes and again limits Seattle's passing game, the Seahawks may have a harder time separating.

New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks Final Prediction

Seattle still has several advantages. The Seahawks are playing at home, retain much of a championship defense and already know they can create pressure against Maye.

New England, however, now has more weapons and has invested in improving the offensive line. Seattle is also entering the rematch without the running back who drove much of its rushing success in February.

That combination points toward a much tighter game.

Prediction: Seattle Seahawks 23, New England Patriots 20

Seattle gets the outright victory, but New England covers the 3.5-point spread. A 23-20 final would also keep the game below the Betcris Arizona total of 44.5.

New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks Betting Tips

Betcris Arizona has Seattle favored by 3.5 points entering the regular-season opener. The Seahawks are also -185 on the moneyline, while New England is +160. The total is 44.5, with a slightly heavier price attached to the Under.

Spread: New England +3.5 (-107), Seattle -3.5 (-109)

Moneyline: New England +160, Seattle -185

Total: Over 44.5 (-101), Under 44.5 (-115)

The three primary markets do not necessarily point toward the same bet. Seattle remains the preferred outright winner, but New England getting more than a field goal creates a different question against the spread.

Spread Betting Tip: New England +3.5 (-107)

Seattle deserves to be favored after winning the Super Bowl matchup by 16 points, but New England addressed several of the weaknesses that contributed to that loss.

Brown and Doubs give Maye considerably more receiving help, while Vera-Tucker and Lomu are part of the effort to strengthen an offensive line that allowed six sacks in February.

There is also a meaningful difference in Seattle's offense. Walker is gone and Charbonnet will not play, leaving Price with an important role immediately.

Getting more than a field goal with New England therefore has appeal.

Backing the Patriots against the spread does not require predicting an outright upset. Seattle can win another close game while New England stays within the number. That fits our projected 23-20 score.

Moneyline Betting Tip: Seattle -185

The moneyline points in the other direction. Seattle has won five of the last six meetings between these teams and enters the season as the defending Super Bowl champion. The Seahawks also have home-field advantage for the rematch and return much of the defense that created so many problems for Maye.

New England's offseason improvements narrow the gap, but Seattle remains the more trustworthy straight-up choice until the Patriots demonstrate that their new offensive pieces can change this matchup.

The -185 price does not offer the same value as New England +3.5, but Seattle remains the preferred winner.

Total Betting Tip: Under 44.5 (-115)

The total could offer the strongest betting angle.

Seattle's running game faces immediate uncertainty without Walker or Charbonnet. Price has first-round talent, but this will be his first NFL regular-season game. New England's defense also limited Seattle's passing attack in the Super Bowl, particularly Smith-Njigba.

New England's offense should be better, but the Patriots still have to prove that their revamped offensive line can consistently handle Seattle's pressure.

The Super Bowl produced 42 total points despite Seattle getting a defensive touchdown and another short-field scoring opportunity following a turnover. The teams combined for only 666 total yards, with Seattle finishing at 335 and New England at 331.

A cleaner game from New England could reduce Seattle's easy scoring opportunities without necessarily turning the Patriots into a high-scoring offense immediately.

Our projected 23-20 score produces 43 points.

What the Betcris Arizona Futures Say

The broader Betcris Arizona markets show that both teams enter the season with significant expectations.

Seattle's regular-season win total is 10.5, with the Over priced at -128. New England is at 9.5, with Over 9.5 carrying a -141 price.

Seattle is also +1164 to win Super Bowl LXI, compared with +2370 for New England. In the division markets, Seattle is +220 to win the NFC West, while New England is +145 to win the AFC East.

Those prices reinforce Seattle's position as the stronger overall championship contender entering Week 1, but they also show that New England is far from being viewed as an ordinary road underdog. The Patriots are expected to remain in the AFC playoff picture after reaching the Super Bowl last season.

Download the App to get the latest odds.

New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks Head-To-Head and Key Stats

Seattle has controlled the recent series, but many of the meetings between these teams have been far more competitive than the most recent Super Bowl result suggests. In the last seven meetings, Seattle is 5-2 straight up. The Seahawks have also performed well against the spread, while the Over has historically been common when New England and Seattle meet.

Recent Patriots vs. Seahawks Meetings

Seattle has won five of the last six meetings.

The Seahawks defeated the Patriots 29-13 in Super Bowl LX, covering as a 5.5-point favorite. Before that, Seattle won 23-20 in overtime at New England in September 2024. That game resulted in a push against the 3-point spread.

Seattle also won 35-30 in 2020, 31-24 in 2016 and 24-23 in 2012.

New England's only victory during the last six meetings came in Super Bowl XLIX, when the Patriots defeated Seattle 28-24.

The series has therefore tilted heavily toward Seattle, but close finishes have been common.

Six of the seven meetings were decided by seven points or fewer. The lone exception was Seattle's 16-point victory in February.

That history supports the possibility of the Week 1 rematch returning to the type of close game that has traditionally defined this matchup.

Patriots vs. Seahawks ATS and Over/Under Trends

The individual game results show Seattle going 5-1-1 ATS across the seven meetings.

The Over/Under history has been even more one-sided. Six of the seven games went over the listed total.

The only Under came in the most recent Super Bowl, when Seattle and New England combined for 42 points against a closing total of 45.5.

That creates an interesting conflict for this matchup.

The long-term head-to-head trend strongly favors the Over, but many of those games were played with completely different quarterbacks, coaches and rosters. The February meeting carries more weight when evaluating the current matchup, and that game stayed Under despite Seattle scoring 29 points.

With Seattle missing Walker and Charbonnet and New England still needing to prove its revamped offense can handle Seattle's defense, the more recent information points toward another lower-scoring game.

What the Super Bowl Numbers Tell Us

The Super Bowl box score tells a more complicated story than the 29-13 final score.

Seattle finished with 335 total yards compared with New England's 331. The Seahawks held a significant 141-79 advantage in rushing yards, while New England actually finished with more passing yardage, 252 to 194.

The biggest difference was how those yards translated into points.

Seattle controlled the running game, pressured Maye and turned New England mistakes into scoring opportunities. The Patriots moved the ball at times, but sacks and an inability to finish drives kept them from producing enough points.

That makes offensive efficiency more important than raw yardage in the rematch.

New England has upgraded the personnel around Maye and should present a more difficult offensive challenge. Seattle, meanwhile, enters the opener without Walker and Charbonnet, creating an immediate test for a running game that helped decide the Super Bowl.

The changes should make the second meeting much closer than the first. Seattle still has enough defensive continuity and home-field advantage to earn the victory, but New England +3.5 and Under 44.5 offer the more attractive betting angles for the NFL regular-season opener.