Thursday Night Football: Patriots at Bears Predictions

There will be a Super Bowl XX rematch in the Thursday night football game this week as the Chicago Bears face the New England Patriots. Both the Bears and the Patriots are 4-2 ahead of  NFL Thursday night football, but Chicago is in a much tougher division. Every team in the NFC North has a winning record, while New England has the good fortune of being in the same division as the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets. That’s why I will be backing the Bears as a short home favorite per the NFL betting odds in my Thursday night football predictions.

Thursday Night Football Matchup Preview

We will see plenty of Super Bowl Shuffle flashbacks during this Thursday night football matchup. While the New England Patriots are the most decorated team in the Super Bowl era, the Chicago Bears have only lifted the Lombardi Trophy one time. That came in 1986 when one of the greatest defenses of all time led the Bears to a 46-10 win over the Patriots in the Louisiana Superdome. There will certainly be a tribute to Mike Ditka, and some of the members of that legendary defense may be in attendance at Soldier Field.

Team Records & Recent Form

The Chicago Bears are 4-2 SU and 4-2 ATS ahead of this game. They have covered the number in all of the games they have won to this point, but the Bears have not been favored by more than 4.5 points yet this season. Chicago’s offense scored 59 points against Carolina in its season opener, but the Bears have been much more pedestrian on that side of the ball in recent weeks with Caleb Williams injured. Williams is now back under center, and he led the Bears to a 31-23 on the road against Atlanta in Week 6.

New England is also 4-2 SU and 4-2 ATS. The Patriots have been an up-and-down team this season, and that has done little to quell the doubters who called last year’s run to the Super Bowl a fluke. They suffered a tough loss to Seattle to start the season and were hammered by the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3, but New England has since won three straight games and knocked off the Buffalo Bills in Buffalo. The Patriots crushed the Las Vegas Raiders as a short favorite in Week 5, but they failed to cover the number in a seven-point home victory over the New York Jets on Sunday.

Key Injuries & Roster Updates

Caleb Williams played very well in his return on Sunday. Williams tore his hamstring in Chicago’s Week 2 loss to Minnesota, forcing Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum into action for the Bears. The two backup quarterbacks kept the team moving in the right direction with Williams sidelined, and that’s why the Bears are still in playoff position. Elsewhere, second year running back Kyle Monangai has missed the last two weeks with thumb and toe injuries and is questionable for the Bears. Starting right guard Jonah Jackson is questionable with a hip injury, linebacker T.J. Edwards is questionable with a hamstring issue, and defensive end Montez Sweat is suspended for one more game.

It’s a MASH unit along New England’s offensive line. The Patriots have three offensive linemen on injured reserve, and starters Ben Brown, Morgan Moses, and Elijah Vera-Tucker are all questionable. Will Campbell is a great left tackle, but he can’t cover all positions. Receivers Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins are on injured reserve, while A.J. Brown is questionable with an ankle injury. Defensively, the Patriots are relatively healthy with only Carlton Davis III and Harold Landry III listed out among the two-deep on the depth chart.

Storylines to Watch

Chicago’s offense is looking elite once again with Caleb Williams running the show. Head coach Ben Johnson is living up to his billing as an offensive guru as Williams has blossomed since Johnson was hired as head coach last year. Williams is completing 72.5% of his passes for 712 yards with three touchdowns and an interception through three starts.

Conversely, Drake Maye has been very mistake prone this season. Maye threw seven interceptions in his first four games before putting together consecutive strong performances against the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Jets. He threw for over 600 yards and seven touchdown passes without an interception in those wins.

Thursday Night Football Odds

Initially, the Chicago Bears were favored by 2.5 points over the New England Patriots on Thursday night. However, the Bears are now three-point favorites per the NFL betting odds after their impressive win over the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday.

Point Spread Odds

Chicago is now a field goal favorite over New England, and the line could move to 3.5 points before kickoff due to the Patriots’ issues on the offensive line.

Moneyline Odds

Currently, the Chicago Bears are -160 on the moneyline in this game. That means a $160 bet on the Bears would return a $100 profit if they beat New England. A $100 bet on the Patriots’ moneyline would lead to a $140 win if New England pulled off the upset.

Over/Under Odds

The total for the Thursday Night Football game is currently 50.5 points. This is one of three games with a total of more than 50 points in Week 7.

Thursday Night Football Predictions

I’ve gone on a bit of a cold spell with my Thursday night football picks, but I was very unfortunate to lose last week. Seattle completely outplayed Denver, and Bo Nix really struggled to move the ball, but the Seahawks turned the ball over three times and lost in overtime despite finishing with more than twice as many yards as the Broncos.

Winner Prediction

The underdog has covered and won in each of the last four Thursday Night Football games. Buffalo was the last favorite to cover back in Week 2, and I think Chicago will break that trend on Thursday night. The Bears are better on offense, and they have home field advantage.

Score Prediction

Chicago Bears 27, New England Patriots 21

X-Factor of the Game

D’Andre Swift will be the difference maker on Thursday Night Football. Kyle Monangai had a great start to the season, but Swift has stepped up with the 2025 draft pick sidelined. He has found the end zone three times in the last two weeks.

Best Bets for Thursday Night Football

The under did hit once again last week for my Thursday Night Football best bets. I do give a slight preference to the Under once again this time, but my favorite bet is Chicago -3. New England is a borderline playoff team, while Chicago could be a legitimate Super Bowl contender if Williams can stay healthy.

Best Spread Bet

Chicago Bears -3

Best Moneyline Bet

Chicago Bears -160

Best Total Bet

Under 51 Points

Thursday Night Football Player Props

More NFL player props will be released closer to kickoff, but here are the NFL props that I will be betting on for this week’s Thursday Night Football game.

Passing Props

I’ve been raving about Caleb Williams throughout this preview, so it should come as no surprise that I am taking Williams Over 245.5 Passing Yards on Thursday night. Williams easily went over that total in wins over Carolina and Atlanta, and the 2024 No. 1 overall pick is coming off a game where he completed 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards. His longest completion in that game was just 25 yards too, highlighting the strength of Chicago’s mid-level passing attack.

Conversely, I don’t think Drake Maye will throw for 250 yards or more in this game. Maye has only thrown for at least 250 yards in two of his six starts this season, and his overall numbers are greatly buoyed by his performances over the last two weeks. Additionally, two of his top four targets are on injured reserve now, and A.J. Brown only had 27 receiving yards on 10 targets this past Sunday.

Rushing Props

I don’t like either of the total rushing yards props for Chicago. Caleb Williams has a total of 20.5 Rushing Yards, and D’Andre Swift has a total of 62.5 Rushing Yards. Both numbers are solid given the absence of Kyle Monangai, but I would potentially lean Under with Williams’ rushing yards as Ben Johnson was far more conservative when it came to asking Williams to run after his return from injury.

Drake Maye has shown he can take off and run, so I think he will do enough with his legs to finish with Over 29.5 Rushing Yards in this game. However, I don’t believe Rhamondre Stevenson will finish with more than 45 rushing yards in this game. Stevenson is the favored back at this point, but TreVeyon Henderson is the more explosive runner and will significantly cut into his carries.

Receiving Props

A.J. Brown is New England’s clear No. 1 receiver with both Mack Hollins and Romeo Doubs on injured reserve. Unfortunately, Brown is just coming off an injury himself and still looks limited. He has the highest total of any receiver in this game at 68.5 receiving yards, and I don’t believe he will get to that number.

Two tight end sets are becoming extremely popular this season, and Ben Johnson has been quick to adapt to overall trends as a coach. That’s why my favorite prop bet on Thursday Night Football is Cole Kmet Over 8.5 Receiving Yards. Kmet has been supplanted by Colston Loveland as Chicago’s top tight end, and he has only been targeted twice in each of the Bears’ last three games, but I believe he will see three or four targets this week.

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

D’Andre Swift is the most logical option to find the end zone, but I think it’s worth taking a flyer on Cole Kmet to score a touchdown too.

Thursday Night Football Betting Trends

The overall NFL betting trends do bode well for New England. Road teams have covered in 54.8% of their games this season, and underdogs are covering at an even higher clip. Underdogs are staying within the number in 55.9% of games to this point of the season.

Against the Spread Trends

Both Chicago and New England enter this game with a 4-2 ATS record.

Over/Under Trends

The Under has hit in each of Chicago’s last four home games, but the Over has been the right side in New England’s last three games.

Head-to-Head Trends

New England is 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS against Chicago over the last two decades. Chicago’s only win in this stretch came in 2022 when Bailey Zappe replaced Mac Jones in a 33-14 Bears win.

How to Bet on Thursday Night Football

I know I keep following favorites in my NFL betting tips despite the long-term trend that Underdogs and Unders are top bets on short weeks. Seattle was the right side last week though, and I believe that Chicago is the right side on Thursday.

Understanding NFL Betting Markets

The spread in this game is likely to stay around three points since three is the most important key number in football. We could see Chicago move to a 3.5-point favorite if A.J. Brown is scratched and the New England offensive line is shuffled before kickoff.

Tips for Betting Thursday Night Football

Underdogs and Unders are usually good bets on Thursday Night Football given the short week for both teams. However, I am once again backing a favorite even though this general advice would have been astute for any bettor over the last month.

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