Thursday Night Football Predictions & Best Bets

First place in the AFC North will be up for grabs when the Pittsburgh Steelers take on the Cleveland Browns in Week 4’s Thursday night football game. Every team in the division is currently sitting at 2-1 after Week 3, so either the Steelers or Browns will move to 3-1 after NFL Thursday night football. This is one of the most intense rivalries in the AFC, so the Dawg Pound will be rocking when the Browns’ archrival comes to town.

This is expected to be a pretty even game even though Pittsburgh has historically dominated Cleveland. The Steelers are road favorites in NFL betting odds over the Browns, but you will have to keep reading the Thursday night football predictions to figure out whether or not that should be the case.

Thursday Night Football Matchup Preview

Cleveland is hoping to post just its fifth winning season since the Browns returned to the NFL in 1999. The Browns were expected to finish at the bottom of the AFC North once more, but they can prove they are ready to turn things around if they win this Thursday night football matchup.

Team Records & Recent Form

Pittsburgh is sitting at 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS following last week’s win against Cincinnati. The Steelers did not look good in their first two games, squeaking past a banged-up Atlanta team before losing by 17 points to New England. That led to the Steelers being home underdogs against the Cincinnati Bengals, but Pittsburgh was able to do just enough to win that game. Aaron Rodgers threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns, while Jaylen Warren ran for 127 yards in the victory.

We saw Cleveland get blown out by Jacksonville in its opener, but the Browns have since responded with two straight wins. They knocked off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-19 in Week 2 and erased a late deficit to beat the Carolina Panthers 21-18 last week. Deshaun Watson isn’t playing great, but he is limiting turnovers to give the Browns an opportunity to win close games. Cleveland is currently 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS.

Key Injuries & Roster Updates

Pittsburgh is pretty healthy on offense. Rico Dowdle missed last week’s game with a toe injury, and he is questionable to play this week with that same issue. The Steelers are dealing with a few injuries in the secondary as Brandin Echols is in the concussion protocol, and Jalen Ramsey is questionable with a wrist injury.

As we saw last week with Green Bay, there are major issues along Cleveland’s offensive line ahead of this game. Right tackle Tytus Howard is questionable after being limited in Monday’s practice with a knee injury, right guard Teven Jenkins continues to deal with a back issue, and center Elgton Jenkins probably won’t play as he is in the concussion protocol. If the latter Jenkins doesn’t play, that will be a huge blow to this offensive line. Defensively, Tyson Campbell is out, and Grant Delpit is questionable. 

Storylines to Watch

Both quarterbacks are going to be in the spotlight on Thursday night. Aaron Rodgers has at least silenced the critics for one week. Rodgers had only thrown multiple touchdown passes in one game since last October prior to throwing for three scores against Cincinnati on Sunday afternoon. He hasn’t been extremely accurate this season, completing no more than 60% of his passes in any game, but Rodgers can still be an effective game manager.

Deshaun Watson wasn’t great in his first game back this season, but he was solid over Cleveland’s last two games. Watson completed two-thirds of his passes for 382 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in wins over Tampa Bay and Carolina. However, he needs to show that he can do it earlier in the game, as Watson has not been that effective in the first three quarters.

Thursday Night Football Odds

Initially, the Pittsburgh Steelers were only favored by 1.5 points on the road against the Cleveland Browns. However, the Thursday Night Football odds have since moved to 2.5 points after Pittsburgh’s offense finally looked competent in a 30-27 win over Cincinnati on Sunday.

Point Spread Odds

It’s very likely that Pittsburgh remains a 2.5-point favorite by the NFL betting odds until the game on Thursday night. A move to three points would be significant, as that is the most important betting number in football.

Moneyline Odds

Pittsburgh is a short road favorite over Cleveland on Thursday Night Football. Currently, the Steelers are -145 on the moneyline. That means a bettor would have to wager $145 on the Steelers to return a $100 profit. Conversely, a $100 wager on the Browns would return a $125 profit if Cleveland was able to pull off the upset.

Over/Under Odds

The total in this game has been set at 38.5 points. That might seem low at first glance, but the Browns and Steelers have a habit of playing low-scoring games. 

Thursday Night Football Predictions

In their last ten meetings, the total in a game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns has not closed higher than 42.5 points. In fact, eight of those 10 games saw totals that closed under 40 points, and six of those games still went under the total. The last regular season game between the Steelers and Browns to finish with more than 50 points came all the way back in 2018 when Pittsburgh defeated Cleveland 33-18, so the Under has to be strongly considered.

Winner Prediction

Let’s make it three in a row when it comes to my Thursday night football picks. I had Buffalo beating Detroit by 10+ points in Week 2, and I called on Atlanta to upset Green Bay in Lambeau Field last week due to the Packers’ injury woes on the offensive line. This game is undoubtedly a bit tougher to handicap, but I have the Steelers squeaking past the Browns in another low-scoring game in this rivalry.

Score Prediction

Pittsburgh Steelers 20, Cleveland Browns 16

X-Factor of the Game

Quarterback play is the big concern for both teams in this game. Neither Aaron Rodgers nor Deshaun Watson have looked particularly great overall, but they have both shown flashes of previous success. Cleveland’s issues on the offensive line are more likely to be exploited, so that’s why I will go with Pittsburgh to move to 3-1.

Best Bets for Thursday Night Football

Honestly, I don’t have a strong feeling when it comes to any of my Thursday night football best bets in Week 4. Pittsburgh has the better defense and has fewer concerns along the offensive line, so I will back the Steelers in a game that shouldn’t have too many points.

Best Spread Bet

Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5

Best Moneyline Bet

Pittsburgh Steelers -145

Best Total Bet

Under 38.5 Points

Thursday Night Football Player Props

More NFL player props will be released closer to kickoff, but here are the NFL props that I will be betting on for this week’s Thursday Night Football game. 

Passing Props

Aaron Rodgers’ passing total has been set at 212.5 Passing Yards, and that seems spot on. Rodgers is completing 58.4% of his passes and is averaging just 6.2 YPA on the year, as he is no longer the same quarterback we saw with Green Bay.

However, I do think that Deshaun Watson’s total of 188.5 Passing Yards is a little low. Watson will probably need to throw the ball more this week as Pittsburgh does a good job of stopping the run, and head coach Todd Monken has to make sure Watson gets going earlier in the game as his starting quarterback has only thrown for 334 yards through the first three quarters of Cleveland’s three games to this point. 

Rushing Props

Jaylen Warren is coming off his best game yet this season. Warren was splitting time with Rico Dowdle, but Dowdle’s injury last week led to Warren seeing the vast majority of the snaps at running back. The fifth-year player from Oklahoma State carried the ball 17 times for 127 yards against Cincinnati, so I like Warren to finish Over 65.5 Rushing Yards as I believe he will get at least 18 carries this week.

Conversely, Quinshon Judkins is unlikely to run for more than 56.5 yards in this game. Cleveland’s ground game has been nonexistent this year, and Judkins is averaging just 3.0 YPC through three games. If you take out Watson’s rushing numbers, the Browns have only run for 158 yards so far this season.

Receiving Props

Neither one of these receiving rooms inspires a lot of confidence. Pittsburgh was hoping that D.K. Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr. could give Rodgers two big bodies to target, but the leading receiver is slot receiver Roman Wilson who has 11 receptions for 114 yards and a touchdown. That’s why it might be wise to bet Metcalf Under 42.5 Receiving Yards and Pittman Under 34.5 Receiving Yards although those numbers are low. I do think that Pat Freiermuth will finish with Over 29.5 Receiving Yards.

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Freiermuth and Warren are probably the two best value options here. Freiermuth is a solid red zone target, and Pittsburgh does love to use tight ends in the passing game when the field gets tighter. Meanwhile, Warren will receive the bulk of the action at running back, and he is a solid option as a receiver too.

Thursday Night Football Betting Trends

In terms of NFL betting trends on Thursday Night Football, we have seen the last two Thursday night games fly over the NFL betting total. Over the course of the season, favorites are 31-17 SU, but home underdogs are 10-7 ATS. 

Against the Spread Trends

Cleveland is 5-1 ATS over its last six games ahead of Thursday night’s showdown with Pittsburgh. 

Over/Under Trends

The Under has cashed slightly more often than the Over this season. In games that ended in regulation, 24 of the 45 games finished Under the total.

Head-to-Head Trends

This series has been historically lopsided in favor of one team or the other. In the 1950s and 1960s, Cleveland had the advantage with a 31-9 record against Pittsburgh. However, that was flipped in the 2000s and 2010s, as the Steelers had a 34-6-1 record against the Browns. Pittsburgh is only 7-6 in the 13 games these teams have played against one another this decade, making it the most even decade in this head-to-head series so far. 

How to Bet on Thursday Night Football

Usually, one of my favorite NFL betting tips is to back home underdogs. However, this is a tough spot for the Browns as the Steelers have had their number recently, and Cleveland has some serious concerns along the offensive line.

Understanding NFL Betting Markets

Bettors like to bet on home teams and favorites, but the public action should be more evenly dispersed given that the Steelers are road favorites. 

Tips for Betting Thursday Night Football

There is typically value in underdogs and unders on Thursday Night Football as the short weeks make it harder to cover large spreads, and that is certainly the case in this situation.

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