Thursday Night Football Predictions: Lions vs. Bills

For the second straight week, we have a humdinger of a Thursday night football game. The Los Angeles Rams faced the San Francisco 49ers in the land Down Under last week, and two more Super Bowl contenders will face off on Thursday, September 17, when the Buffalo Bills host the Detroit Lions. Both teams are 1-0 headed into this NFL Thursday night football game, but the Bills faced a much tougher opponent than the Lions.

Famously, neither Buffalo nor Detroit has ever won the Super Bowl. However, both teams are once again on the short list of favorites per the NFL futures odds, adding some spice into our Thursday night football predictions.

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Thursday Night Football Matchup Preview

This is a great Thursday night football matchup, and a potential Super Bowl preview. Buffalo is riding high after a big road win over Houston to start the season. Josh Allen shredded a Texans’ defense that was one of the best units in the league last year, and he connected early and often with new wide receiver D.J. Moore. Detroit wasn’t as impressive in a 31-30 nailbiter against New Orleans, but the Lions picked up the win despite a poor second half performance from this defense.

Team Records & Recent Form

Detroit is 1-0 SU and 0-1 ATS after holding on for an overtime win against New Orleans in Week 1. The Lions looked set to go into cruise control after taking a 21-0 lead midway through the third quarter, but they took their foot off the gas pedal and allowed Tyler Shough to lead the Saints back. Shough threw for 410 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions, and Chris Olave had a massive day against this defense with 10 catches for 182 yards.

Meanwhile, the Bills are 1-0 SU and 1-0 ATS after an impressive 36-31 win over the Texans. Josh Allen had a big day, completing 20 of 29 passes for 334 yards and two touchdowns, and he also ran for two scores. D.J. Moore helped the Bills stretch the field and caught five passes for 100 yards and a touchdown, and tight end Dalton Kincaid also had a big day with five receptions for 130 yards.

Key Injuries & Roster Updates

The Lions are extremely short-handed along the offensive line. Projected starting center Cade Mays fractured a bone in his wrist back in August, and he is expected to miss at least another month. Reserve offensive tackle Giovanni Manu is on the PUP list for at least another two months, and three Week 1 starters on the offensive line are listed as questionable for Thursday night. Juice Scruggs, Blake Miller, and Christian Mahogany are the players whose status is in doubt, making Detroit incredibly reliant on left tackle Penei Sewell.

Buffalo is pretty healthy after Week 1. There are no real additions to the injury report, and the Bills are hoping that running back Ty Johnson and defensive end T.J. Sanders can return from preseason injuries soon.

Storylines to Watch

These are two elite offenses, and there are plenty of comparisons that will be drawn between Josh Allen and Jared Goff. The oddsmakers are expecting this game to be a shootout, making the total in this Thursday night football game 3.5 points higher than any other total in Week 2.

Thursday Night Football Odds

As of Tuesday morning, the Buffalo Bills are moderate home favorites against the Detroit Lions. This game has the highest over/under on the board too, as only two other games this week have a total higher than 48 points.

Point Spread Odds

The betting odds have already moved substantially in favor of the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo opened as a 3-to-3.5-point favorite depending on the sportsbook, and we have seen money come in on the Bills over the last couple days. Currently, the Bills are favored by five points over the Lions.

Moneyline Odds

Accordingly, Buffalo is a moderately priced moneyline favorite at -220. This means that a bettor would need to place $220 on the Bills’ moneyline to win $100 at this price. Conversely, Detroit is a +190 moneyline underdog, so a $100 bet on the Lions to win the game would return a $190 profit if they were to pull off the upset.

Over/Under Odds

This is the highest total yet in this short season. The oddsmakers have pegged the Bills and Lions over/under at a whopping 53.5 after both offenses scored 30+ points in their opening games.

Thursday Night Football Predictions

Detroit is in a very difficult position here. The Lions can put points on the board, but their defense is still struggling to stop opponents. New Orleans accumulated 469 total yards against the Lions last week, and the Saints were a missed extra point away from upsetting Detroit as a 7-point underdog. Buffalo’s defense had some issues as well, but that’s much more understandable against Houston, so I am going to back the Bills here.

Winner Prediction

This might end up being one of my strongest Thursday night football picks of the season. Buffalo looked great in its season opener, and the Bills are playing at home. Meanwhile, Detroit now has to go into a hostile environment on a short week while dealing with some big injury issues along the offensive line. That is a recipe for failure, and I believe the Bills will handily win this game by 10 or more points.

Score Prediction

Buffalo Bills 34, Detroit Lions 23

X-Factor of the Game

D.J. Moore was outstanding in his Buffalo debut on Sunday. Moore was acquired from Chicago (along with a fifth-round pick) for a second-round pick this offseason, and he made an instant impact for the Bills. Moore gives Josh Allen a true No. 1 receiver once more, and he had a lot of success against Detroit in 2023 and 2024 before falling out of favor in Chicago last year.

Best Bets for Thursday Night Football

There are no secrets or a false building of drama when discussing my Thursday night football best bets. Buffalo is a much better team than Detroit, and the Bills were my preseason Super Bowl pick. They have a strong defensive line that should be able to cause all sorts of havoc against Detroit’s injury-riddled offensive line, and I believe Josh Allen will have a great performance in a relatively easy victory for the Bills.

Best Spread Bet

Buffalo Bills -5

Best Moneyline Bet

Buffalo Bills -220

Best Total Bet

Over 53.5 Points

Thursday Night Football Player Props

More NFL player props will be released closer to kickoff, but here are the NFL props that I will be betting on for this week’s Thursday Night Football game.

Passing Props

Josh Allen should have his second straight performance that will make fantasy football players happy. Allen completed 20 of 29 passes for 334 yards and two touchdowns last week against Houston, yet his over/under in this game is set at just 251.5 passing yards. I believe that Allen will throw for over 300 yards once again since Detroit’s secondary is on a short week and didn’t look great against New Orleans last week.

Rushing Props

Jahmyr Gibbs had a great Week 1 against New Orleans. Gibbs ran the ball 29 times for 156 yards and two touchdowns, and he also caught all five of his targeted passes for 30 receiving yards. He is certainly one of the most talented running backs in the game, but this is not a good spot for Gibbs. Detroit has major issues along the offensive line, and Buffalo has a defensive line that can take advantage. I don’t think that Gibbs will get close to his total of 89.5 rushing yards in this game.

Receiving Props

There are a few different props that I like here. Usually, I am hesitant to take a lot of overs in receiving props, but I believe that the big games from Amon-Ra St. Brown, D.J. Moore, and Dalton Kincaid are all indications of their importance this season rather than an early season aberration. Accordingly, I am betting Moore Over 60.5 Receiving Yards, Kincaid Over 51.5 Receiving Yards, and Amon-Ra St. Brown to have at least eight receptions. St. Brown was targeted 14 times on 39 pass attempts last week, and he caught 10 passes for 67 yards and two touchdowns.

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Buffalo loves to use Josh Allen as a running threat in the red zone, and I believe Allen will find the end zone once again after scoring two rushing touchdowns last week.

Thursday Night Football Betting Trends

It’s hard to ascribe any NFL betting trends for Thursday night football just yet this season. San Francisco beat the Los Angeles Rams 27-7 last week, but that game should be treated as an anomaly. It was played in Melbourne, Australia, and it’s clear that the Rams’ strategy of flying out less than two days before to avoid jet lag backfired in a big way.

Typically, Thursday Night Football favors home teams and favorites. Teams on short rest greatly benefit from playing on their home turf and limiting their travel, while visitors have extra hurdles to overcome given the short weeks.

Against the Spread Trends

Detroit is now 3-7 ATS over its last 10 games. Meanwhile, Buffalo has covered the number in three of its last four games dating back to last season.

Over/Under Trends

The Over looks great in this game if you look at recent trends. Detroit has had 7 of its last 10 games finish over the total, and the Lions’ defense is allowing 28.4 PPG over its last eight outings. Buffalo has seen 6 of its last 8 games go over the total as well, as the Bills have scored at least 23 points in 8 of their last 9 games.

Head-to-Head Trends

Buffalo has won five straight games against Detroit. However, these results should be taken with a large grain of salt, as the Bills and Lions have played just five times since 2010. Their last meeting was one of the highest scoring games ever though as the Bills beat the Lions 48-42 on December 15, 2024. Buffalo and Detroit combined for 1,080 total yards for offense on that day.

How to Bet on Thursday Night Football

One of my NFL betting tips specific to Thursday Night Football is to bet against road teams dealing with injury issues. The stress of going on the road while dealing with a decimated position group tends to be a compounding effect, so I believe Detroit will have an awfully tough time winning in Buffalo on Thursday night.

Understanding NFL Betting Markets

Bettors like to bet on home teams and favorites, so it’s no surprise that this line has moved given those two factors along with Detroit’s injury issues.

Tips for Betting Thursday Night Football

There is typically value in underdogs and unders on Thursday Night Football as the short weeks make it harder to cover large spreads, but this situation really favors Buffalo.

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