World Cup Group D Preview: Betting Predictions & Team Analysis

The United States will be the last of the three 2026 World Cup host nations to begin its tournament. Although the Americans are placed in Group D, they will play in the fourth match of the competition before getting a full week off ahead of their second Group Stage game.

If the United States can advance into the knockout rounds, its World Cup odds could shift significantly. The Americans would likely benefit from home-field advantage in future matches, something that helped South Korea in 2002 and Russia in 2018 when both host nations exceeded expectations with strong support from their home crowds.

Odds to Win Group D

United States +140
Turkey +190
Paraguay +400
Australia +800

Group D looks like one of the most balanced groups in the 2026 World Cup. There is no clear heavyweight and no extreme longshot based on either the soccer futures odds or the FIFA World Rankings. The United States are ranked 16th, Turkey are ranked 22nd, Australia are ranked 27th, and Paraguay are ranked 40th.

Interestingly, the United States have already faced all three of their Group D opponents on home soil within the last year. The Americans started quickly against Turkey last June in Hartford, with Jack McGlynn scoring in the opening minute. However, Arda Guler and Kerem Akturkoglu answered with goals in quick succession midway through the first half, giving Turkey a 2-1 victory.

The USMNT responded with a pair of narrow wins later in the year. They defeated Australia 2-1 in mid-October behind a brace from Haji Wright, then edged Paraguay by the same score in mid-November thanks to a late second-half goal from Folarin Balogun.

Odds to Win World Cup for Group D Teams

United States +7005
Turkey +11007
Paraguay +20014
Australia +65047

Turkey are the only team in Group D to have made a deep World Cup run in relatively recent history, despite having the fewest total World Cup appearances in the group by a wide margin. This will be just Turkey’s third time at the tournament, but their 2002 campaign was memorable.

That year, Turkey reached the knockout rounds before defeating Japan 1-0 in the Round of 16 and Senegal 1-0 in the quarterfinals. They eventually fell 1-0 to Brazil in the semifinals, completing one of the most impressive surprise runs of that World Cup.

Match Schedule

Team Previews

United States

The 2026 World Cup will mark the 12th appearance for the United States. Their best finish came at the inaugural World Cup in 1930, when they placed third. Since then, however, the Americans have only advanced beyond the Round of 16 once.

Mauricio Pochettino, the former Tottenham manager, took over as head coach of the United States in September 2024 and has not been shy about testing the player pool. Over the past year, 69 different players have been called into the national team setup, leaving plenty of uncertainty around what the final roster will look like.

Christian Pulisic is the clear star of this squad. Widely regarded as the most talented player in United States history, Pulisic has already scored 32 goals in 84 national team appearances. At just 27 years old, he has built an impressive club résumé with Borussia Dortmund, Chelsea, and AC Milan.

In midfield, Giovanni Reyna and Weston McKennie are expected to be two of the key playmakers. Reyna is once again a major piece for the national team after his public fallout with former manager Gregg Berhalter at the 2022 World Cup. McKennie, meanwhile, gives the United States tactical flexibility because of his ability to play multiple midfield roles.

The defense has fewer certainties. Crystal Palace center back Chris Richards appears to be the only guaranteed starter in the back line. Richards is entering the prime of his career and has shown quality for both club and country. Tim Ream currently wears the captain’s armband, but he is 38 and has returned to MLS after spending a decade with Fulham. Mark McKenzie is another likely option, even though he has yet to play for the United States in a major international tournament.

Goalkeeper may be the biggest concern for the Americans. Every leading candidate to start in net currently plays in MLS, and the three most capped options are Matt Turner, Matt Freese, and Zack Steffen.

Turkey

Turkey, also known as the Crescent Stars, will be making just their third World Cup appearance. They were strong during qualifying, earning a draw against Spain on Spanish soil before defeating Romania and Kosovo by identical 1-0 scores in the playoffs to secure their place in the tournament.

Captain Hakan Calhanoglu is the key player for Turkey. He is the most capped active player on the roster with 104 appearances and has scored 22 goals for the national team. The No. 10 has also been a regular presence for both major Milan clubs over the last decade. Kaan Ayhan and Orkun Kokcu are also expected to have important roles.

Kerem Akturkoglu gives Turkey a reliable attacking threat, but two 21-year-old forwards could become major storylines. Real Madrid’s Arda Guler and Juventus’ Kenan Yildiz have both impressed enough at club level to earn regular starting roles, and either one could emerge as one of the breakout players of the group.

Like the United States, Turkey have legitimate concerns in defense. Spain exposed those issues in September with a 6-0 win over Turkey in Konya. Many of Turkey’s likely defensive starters play domestically, which raises questions about how they will handle top-level attacking talent. Zeki Celik and Merih Demiral are the most experienced defenders, while Caglar Soyuncu was notably left off the roster.

Mert Gunok of Fenerbahce is expected to be the starting goalkeeper for Turkey.

Paraguay

Older soccer fans may remember Paraguay for their excellent defensive performances at the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. Los Guaranies allowed only one goal in the Group Stage, winning their group ahead of defending champions Italy. They then reached the quarterfinals before losing to eventual champions Spain.

This will be Paraguay’s first World Cup appearance since that 2010 run. However, this current squad does not appear to have the same level of overall talent. Miguel Almiron is the most recognizable name for MLS and English soccer fans, while Diego Gomez has the potential to become a standout player. Beyond them, Ramon Sosa is the only other Paraguayan midfielder with more than 20 caps.

Paraguay should still be dependable defensively. Captain Gustavo Gomez, Junior Alonso, and Fabian Balbuena are experienced and familiar with each other from playing professionally in Brazil. Sunderland defender Omar Alderete could also earn a place in the Starting XI, but the goalkeeping situation remains a major question.

The biggest problem for Paraguay is the lack of attacking firepower. No player called up over the past year has scored 10 international goals, and that lack of proven scoring makes it unlikely that Paraguay will push forward aggressively. They are more likely to rely on defensive organization and look for selective chances.

Australia

Australia have now qualified for six straight World Cups, but the Socceroos have yet to move beyond the Round of 16. Many analysts view this as one of Australia’s weaker recent squads, which helps explain why they have the longest odds to win Group D.

Goalkeeper is likely Australia’s strongest position. Captain Matthew Ryan brings significant experience, with more than 100 caps for the national team. He has played at a high level for many years and may give Australia an edge over other teams in the group at that position.

Beyond Ryan, there are more concerns. Jordan Bos is a solid defender who can cover ground and contribute going forward, and he has performed well at Feyenoord. Riley McGree has been a useful holding midfielder during his time with Middlesbrough, but Australia have not received enough goals from midfield in recent years outside of Jackson Irvine.

That places plenty of pressure on the forwards to create offense. Martin Boyle and Awer Mabil have each scored 10 goals for the Socceroos, but both are now over 30. Australia clearly miss having a game-changing attacker like Tim Cahill, someone who could create moments of danger even without much support from midfield.