World Cup Group F Preview: Betting Predictions & Team Analysis

Group F is one of the more compelling groups at the 2026 World Cup. The Netherlands enter as the clear favorite according to the World Cup betting odds, but this is not a group they can afford to overlook. Every team in Group F has experience on the international stage, and each brings enough quality to make things difficult.

Japan, in particular, look especially dangerous. Samurai Blue have been in excellent form and may be positioned to make their deepest World Cup run yet.

Odds to Win Group F

Netherlands -145
Japan +315
Sweden +575
Tunisia +850

The Netherlands are still favored to win Group F according to the World Cup futures, but Japan have attracted more betting attention in recent weeks. The Japanese national team has won five straight international matches and kept four consecutive clean sheets during that stretch.

Japan’s recent run has been impressive. They erased a 2-0 deficit against Brazil in the Kirin Challenge Cup and went on to defeat the Brazilians. They followed that result with a 2-0 win over Ghana and a 3-0 victory against Bolivia.

Their late-March performances were even more eye-catching. Japan defeated Scotland 1-0 in Glasgow before beating England 1-0 in London. That win made Japan the first Asian team ever to defeat England, which has led many analysts to view them as a legitimate World Cup sleeper.

Odds to Win World Cup for Group F Teams

Netherlands +2200
Japan +5000
Sweden +10000
Tunisia +50000

Japan’s World Cup title odds have dropped to 50-1, reflecting the growing belief that this team can make noise in the tournament. The Netherlands, meanwhile, are no longer part of the top tier of favorites despite several strong international showings over the last 16 years.

The Dutch were somewhat fortunate to advance from the Group Stage at Euro 2024, but they did make a run to the semifinals after defeating Romania and Turkey.

Match Schedule

Team Previews

Netherlands

The Netherlands are still a dangerous team, but they may not be as strong as some of their recent squads. Even though they reached the semifinals of Euro 2024, they finished third in their group and benefited from a favorable knockout path against Romania and Turkey.

This is an experienced Dutch side, but the top-end talent does not appear quite as strong as it has been in previous eras.

Virgil van Dijk remains the biggest name for the Oranje. The longtime Liverpool center back has lost a bit of pace and will turn 35 in July, but he is still one of the best defenders in the world. Van Dijk also gives the Netherlands value on both ends of the pitch, especially when they look to break quickly on counters.

Nathan Ake, Matthijs de Ligt, Stefan de Vrij, and Denzel Dumfries are all expected to see important minutes in defense as well.

In midfield, Frenkie de Jong has not quite become the dominant international playmaker many expected when he emerged as a teenager. He has scored only two goals in 64 appearances for the national team.

That makes Tijjani Reijnders’ role even more important. The Manchester City midfielder has provided a real spark for the Flying Dutchmen, scoring seven goals in 30 international matches. Teun Koopmeiners and Xavi Simons are also worth watching because of their youth and upside.

Memphis Depay is the Netherlands’ all-time leading scorer and is likely to remain the main option at the top of the formation. Depay has scored 55 goals in 108 caps, but he is now entering the later stage of his career.

That could open the door for Liverpool’s Cody Gakpo and Ajax’s Wout Weghorst to take on larger roles, as both forwards have been involved recently for the Oranje.

Japan

Japan may be one of the most interesting teams in the entire World Cup. Their current form has been outstanding, and Samurai Blue already proved they can challenge major powers at the 2022 World Cup.

Despite being heavy underdogs according to the soccer betting odds, Japan defeated both Spain and Germany by 2-1 scorelines in the Group Stage in Qatar. Those wins helped them finish first in their group and raised expectations that they might finally reach the quarterfinals.

However, Japan fell short in the Round of 16, losing to Croatia on penalties. They have reached the Round of 16 in 2002, 2010, 2018, and 2022, and the clear goal now is to finally break through into the quarterfinals.

Parma goalkeeper Zion Suzuki is expected to be the first-choice option for longtime head coach Hajime Moriyasu. The 23-year-old has already made 23 appearances for Japan and has returned to form after suffering a broken hand against AC Milan in November.

Japan’s back line has been excellent over the past year. Bayern Munich’s Hiroki Ito has been a key piece defensively, and the team has strong depth around him. Feyenoord’s Tsuyoshi Watanabe has been reliable, while Yukinari Sugawara and Ko Itakura are also expected to contribute.

Midfield depth is one of Japan’s greatest strengths. Crystal Palace midfielder Daichi Kamada has scored 12 goals in 49 international matches, while Reims winger Keito Nakamura has added 10 goals in 24 appearances.

Captain Wataru Endo appears ready to return to national team duty, and Ritsu Doan brings valuable experience as well.

Near the top of the formation, Kaoru Mitoma of Brighton & Hove can be used in several roles. Feyenoord’s Ayase Ueda is likely to lead the line. Their constant pressure off the ball can force defensive mistakes and create dangerous turnovers.

Sweden

Sweden are one of the more frequent World Cup participants. This will be their 13th appearance in the tournament, and they have advanced out of the Group Stage in each of their last four trips.

The Swedes made headlines with a surprising third-place finish at the 1994 World Cup. They also impressed in 2018 by topping a group that included Germany, Mexico, and South Korea before losing to England in the quarterfinals.

Sweden’s qualifying campaign was not always convincing, but they recovered in March to secure their place in the tournament. They defeated Ukraine 3-1 in late March, then edged Poland 3-2 on March 31 to claim one of the final World Cup spots.

Captain Victor Lindelof will be one of the most important players for Sweden. He was not always a fan favorite at Manchester United, but he remains a capable center back at the international level. No other Swedish defender has more than 30 caps, and there is also inexperience in goal after Robin Olsen retired from international duty last year.

Midfield is a concern for Sweden compared to some of their past teams. There is not as much proven quality in that area, which puts more pressure on forwards Viktor Gyokeres and Alexander Isak to produce.

Gyokeres delivered the decisive moment against Poland, scoring in the 88th minute, and he has been excellent for Arsenal this season. Isak, meanwhile, has struggled since joining Liverpool. He arrived as the third-most expensive transfer ever at £125 million, but he has yet to play a full 90 minutes for the club and has scored just three Premier League goals.

Tunisia

Tunisia will be making their seventh World Cup appearance, but the Eagles of Carthage are still searching for their first trip to the knockout rounds. Many experts are picking them to finish last in Group F, especially after some disappointing recent performances.

Their loss to Mali in the AFCON Round of 16 was a major setback. Tunisia also have an all-time World Cup record of 3-5-10 and played three low-scoring matches in Qatar, finishing with just one goal scored and one goal allowed.

Tunisia’s approach is not difficult to predict. This is not a team built around attacking firepower. None of the players projected to make the final roster have scored more than eight goals for the national team, and one of their top scorers is left back Ali Abdi, who has seven goals in 45 appearances.

Captain Ellyes Skhiri and Anis Ben Slimane are the two midfielders to watch. Skhiri may be the most experienced player on the roster with 81 caps, while Ben Slimane has drawn attention during his time with Norwich City and could be playing top-flight football by the start of next season.