Dollar Tree 301 Predictions: Preview, Odds, Favorites & Best Bets

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to New Hampshire Motor Speedway on Sunday for the Dollar Tree 301. Ryan Blaney enters as the defending winner and the betting favorite at +381, but Christopher Bell, Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin all have strong histories at the 1.058-mile track. The race predictions include Josh Berry as an intriguing value option after two previous excellent New Hampshire finishes. With several Chase positions still unsettled, Sunday’s 301-lap race combines championship pressure with a track where experience and shorter-flat-track performance can play an important role.

Download the Betcris Arizona app to explore the latest odds, live betting options, player props, and more from your mobile device. Get the app today and stay connected to the action anytime, anywhere.

DOWNLOAD OUR APP TODAY

Keep more winnings, scan or click to get the Betcris Arizona app now!

Dollar Tree 301 Preview: Schedule, Track & Key Details

The Dollar Tree 301 is race No. 25 of the 36-race NASCAR Cup Series season and comes one week before the regular-season finale. New Hampshire Motor Speedway has hosted Cup Series racing since 1993 and has featured one race per season since 2018. These race predictions today begin with a track that has produced success for several of the drivers near the top of the betting board.

Date, Time and Location

The Dollar Tree 301 takes place Sunday, August 23 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon, New Hampshire. The race begins at 3:00 p.m. ET and is scheduled for 301 laps and 318.46 miles.

The race is divided into three stages. Stage 1 ends after 70 laps, Stage 2 concludes at Lap 185, and the final stage covers the remaining 116 laps.

USA Network will televise the race.

Track Characteristics and Racing Conditions

New Hampshire is a 1.058-mile oval with only 2 to 7 degrees of banking in the turns and one degree on both straightaways. The relatively flat layout places additional importance on maintaining speed through the corners and positioning the car correctly throughout a run.

Qualifying also deserves attention. Six of 54 Cup races at New Hampshire have been won from the pole, and 55.56% of the winners have started inside the top 10. However, 44.44% have come from outside the top 10, so a poor qualifying result does not necessarily eliminate a contender.

Why This Race Matters

Seven drivers have already clinched Chase positions: Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Ty Gibbs, Tyler Reddick, Chase Briscoe, Chase Elliott and Christopher Bell. Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Chris Buescher, Carson Hocevar, William Byron and others still have opportunities to clinch through points at New Hampshire.

That adds another layer to a race already filled with strong track specialists.

Drivers and Teams to Watch Before the Race

The race favorites include several drivers who have already won at New Hampshire, along with the defending champion and some of the strongest shorter-flat-track performers in NASCAR. The motorsports predictions begin with Blaney, Bell, Logano and Hamlin, but Berry deserves attention at a longer price.

Leading Championship Contenders

Ryan Blaney +381 is the race favorite and defending winner. He won at New Hampshire in 2025 after leading 116 laps and enters Sunday with one of the strongest shorter-flat-track profiles in the field. Blaney also ranks among the top active drivers in average starting position at New Hampshire at 8.769.

Christopher Bell +456 has an outstanding New Hampshire record. Bell has won twice in six Cup starts at the track, taking victories in 2022 and 2024. He also owns three top-five finishes and has repeatedly shown the ability to run near the front at this layout.

Denny Hamlin +603 has the deepest New Hampshire résumé among active drivers. Hamlin leads all active drivers with three wins, 11 top-five finishes, 19 top-10 finishes and 798 laps led at the track. His 9.938 average finish across 32 starts also shows remarkable consistency over a large sample.

Drivers With Strong Recent Form

Joey Logano +502 may offer the best combination of price, recent form and track history. Logano has won two New Hampshire Cup races and started from the pole last season before leading 147 laps and finishing fourth.

Recent form also shows Logano coming off two wins in his last four races. His performance on shorter flat tracks has been particularly strong, making him one of the biggest threats to Blaney.

Bell also belongs in this group. His New Hampshire record has been excellent during the Next Gen era, while Blaney’s 2025 victory showed that his speed at this track can translate directly into a win.

Potential Dark Horse Performers

Josh Berry +1018 is the most appealing longer-price option. Berry has only two Cup starts at New Hampshire, so the sample is small, but the results are difficult to ignore.

Berry owns the best average starting position among active drivers at 6.5 and the best average finish at 2.5. He also has a runner-up finish at the track.

Brad Keselowski +5817 is a much deeper long shot with strong historical numbers. He has two New Hampshire wins, 10 top-five finishes and 16 top-10s, but his much longer price reflects the gap between his track history and the drivers currently leading the betting market.

Understanding the Race Odds and Betting Markets

The Dollar Tree 301 race odds feature a tight group of established contenders at the top. Blaney is the favorite, followed closely by Bell, Logano and Hamlin. Kyle Larson and Chase Briscoe are also priced below +800.

The motorsports betting odds suggest the market is placing considerable weight on New Hampshire history and shorter-flat-track performance.

Outright Winner Odds

Here are the leading Dollar Tree 301 winner odds:

Blaney’s position as the favorite is understandable after last year’s victory. Bell is close behind because of his two New Hampshire wins, while Logano and Hamlin each bring extensive success at the track.

Hamlin’s +603 price is especially notable given his historical record. No active driver has more New Hampshire victories, top-five finishes, top-10 finishes or laps led.

Head-to-Head and Other Popular Markets

Outright winner bets are the primary market available. Head-to-head driver matchups, top-five finishes and other finishing-position markets can provide alternatives when available, especially for bettors who like a driver but do not want to rely on an outright victory.

Berry could be particularly interesting in a finishing-position market because of his two strong New Hampshire results, while Hamlin’s long history of top-five and top-10 finishes could also make him attractive outside the outright market.

How Track Conditions Can Influence Odds

Qualifying can change the race odds, particularly at a track where more than half of the winners have started inside the top 10. A strong qualifying run from Bell, Logano or Blaney could shorten an already competitive price.

The opposite is also true. New Hampshire has produced winners from as far back as 38th, and 24 of the track’s 54 Cup races have been won by drivers starting outside the top 10. Bettors should therefore avoid treating qualifying position as the only factor.

Best Race Betting Picks and Value Opportunities

The best race bets combine track history, current performance and price. Blaney is the most likely winner, but Logano and Berry provide different types of value deeper on the board.

Our race betting picks focus primarily on the outright winner odds because that is where confirmed prices are available.

Top Driver Pick to Win

Ryan Blaney +381 is the top pick.

Blaney won this race last season and led 116 laps along the way. His recent shorter-flat-track numbers also support the idea that the victory was not simply a one-race breakthrough.

The concern is the price. At +381, Blaney does not offer the same potential return as Bell, Logano or Hamlin. Still, his combination of defending-winner status, speed on this track type and strong average starting position makes him the most complete selection.

Value Pick Outside the Favorites

Josh Berry +1018 is the value pick.

Two races are not enough to establish a long-term New Hampshire trend, but finishing well enough to produce a 2.5 average across those starts deserves attention. Berry also owns the best average starting position among active drivers at the track.

At more than 10-to-1, bettors are receiving a much larger return than they would with the four primary favorites.

Betting Markets Worth Considering

The outright win odds provide several different approaches.

Blaney +381 is the safest choice among the leading contenders. Logano +502 offers a better price while still providing elite New Hampshire history and strong recent form. Hamlin +603 is attractive for bettors who place greater weight on long-term track performance.

Berry +1018 moves further into value territory. If finishing-position markets become available, Berry and Hamlin are two drivers worth checking because their New Hampshire results support options beyond simply picking the winner.

Race Winner Prediction and Final Picks

The race winner predictions center on four drivers who have already demonstrated they can contend at New Hampshire. Blaney, Bell, Logano and Hamlin account for eight career Cup victories at the track, including four of the last five races through 2025.

Our race betting predictions ultimately favor the defending winner, but the gap between the top contenders is small enough that price matters.

Predicted Race Winner

Ryan Blaney +381 is the prediction to win the Dollar Tree 301.

Blaney led 116 laps in last year’s victory and has continued to perform well on shorter flat tracks. He also has the second-best average starting position among active drivers at New Hampshire.

Bell may have the strongest Next Gen track record, and Logano offers an attractive combination of recent form and price. Hamlin has the best long-term résumé. Blaney, however, brings together recent track success and current shorter-flat-track strength better than anyone else in the field.

Driver Who Could Surprise

Josh Berry +1018 is the driver who could surprise.

His two-race sample at New Hampshire is limited, but an average finish of 2.5 cannot be dismissed. Berry has already shown that he can put himself in contention at this track, and his double-digit odds make him an appealing alternative to the favorites.

Download the App to get the latest odds.