Thursday Night Football: Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Predictions

The only winless team in the NFC is a heavy underdog in NFL odds coming into this week’s Thursday night football game. Todd Bowles and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are currently sitting at 0-4, and that has Bowles atop every First Coach Fired list. He could be fired if the Buccaneers lose to the Dallas Cowboys on NFL Thursday night football this week, as the Bucs will have 10 days until their next game. That fact and Baker Mayfield’s injury are why we will be going with the Dallas Cowboys in our Thursday night football predictions.

Thursday Night Football Matchup Preview

Currently, the Dallas Cowboys are co-favorites to win the NFC East alongside the Philadelphia Eagles even though the New York Giants have one more win than both teams. A win in this Thursday night football matchup could bring the Cowboys into a tie for the division lead, while the Buccaneers’ fans are just hoping for the No. 1 overall pick at this point.

Team Records & Recent Form

Tampa Bay is 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS. The Buccaneers have been the worst team in the NFC to this point, and they are just one of four teams that have not covered a spread yet this season (Philadelphia, Houston, and the LA Chargers are the other teams). Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels is now Tampa Bay’s starting quarterback due to Baker Mayfield’s injury, and the Buccaneers finished with just 275 total yards of offense in last week’s 17-14 loss to the Green Bay Packers.

Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys are coming off a big win over the Houston Texans last week. Prescott completed 32 of 45 passes for 335 yards and a touchdown as the Cowboys beat the Texans 34-30. CeeDee Lamb had a monster game in his return to Houston, hauling in 17 passes for 189 yards and a touchdown, while Javonte Williams ran for three scores. Dallas is now 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS on the season with three straight covers per the NFL betting odds after a season-opening loss to the Giants.

Key Injuries & Roster Updates

The Buccaneers are no longer very dangerous on offense with Mike Evans gone and Baker Mayfield out. Mayfield was the most effective when he was throwing the ball to Evans, and he wasn’t great before getting hurt this season. Now, the former No. 1 overall pick is sidelined for at least two more weeks after suffering a dislocated right thumb. Additionally, wide receiver Jalen McMillan is injured again, and the secondary isn’t in good shape with Antoine Winfield Jr. out with a broken rib.

Dallas doesn’t have as much to worry about from an injury perspective. This offensive line is still banged up with Tyler Smith and Matt Hennessy on injured reserve, but Dak Prescott has only been sacked six times this season. Starting linebacker DeMarvion Overshown has missed three straight games with a hamstring injury, and he is questionable to play this week as well.

Storylines to Watch

One of the big storylines ahead of this game will be Todd Bowles’ future. Bowles became the head coach after Bruce Arians abruptly resigned in March 2022, and he has been in charge of Tampa Bay since that point. The Buccaneers have been very mediocre under Bowles, as they won between 8 and 10 games every season between 2022 and 2025. Bowles has fared much better than he did in his four seasons as the head coach of the New York Jets, but it seems like his time might be up after an 0-4 start.

Once again, Dallas has an elite offense and an awful defense. Dallas finished in the bottom five in total defense and scoring defense in 2024 and 2025, and the Cowboys are on pace to finish in the bottom five in both categories once again this season. Conversely, this is the second-best scoring offense in the league, and the Cowboys have scored at least 31 points in three straight games ahead of Thursday Night Football.

Thursday Night Football Odds

Dallas is currently favored by 8.5 points over Tampa Bay on Thursday Night Football. The Cowboys were 9.5-point favorites when the NFL betting odds were released on Sunday night, but some money has come in on the Buccaneers.

Point Spread Odds

It doesn’t take much to move a line from 9.5 to 8.5, as 9 is not a key number. This line could easily bounce back to where it opened prior to kickoff, but it’s unlikely to fall lower than 8.

Moneyline Odds

The Dallas Cowboys are a sizable favorite over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Dallas is a -415 moneyline favorite against Tampa Bay, and that means it would take a $415 wager on the Cowboys to return $100 in profit. Conversely, the Buccaneers are a +340 underdog, so a $100 bet on Tampa Bay would lead to a $340 profit if the visitors were able to pull off the upset on Thursday night.

Over/Under Odds

Even though Jalon Daniels will be making just his second start, the total has been set at 47.5 points given Dallas’ prolific offense and porous defense.

Thursday Night Football Predictions

It’s hard to put a lot of faith into Tampa Bay even though all the Buccaneers’ losses this season have been by seven points or less. Jalon Daniels started 49 games over his six seasons with the Kansas Jayhawks, but he wasn’t very accurate and completed just 61.5% of his passes during his collegiate career. Daniels was constantly checking down in his first NFL start last week and didn’t complete a pass longer than 21 yards, so it’s difficult to see the Buccaneers staying close in this game.

Winner Prediction

I was wrong in both of my Thursday night football picks last week. Pittsburgh was unable to get the win, or cover the number, on the road against Cleveland, and the game finished well over the total. However, I am going to back the favorite once again this week as I just don’t see Tampa Bay’s defense stopping Dallas, and Daniels probably won’t be able to move the ball well for the Buccaneers.

Score Prediction

Dallas Cowboys 34, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

X-Factor of the Game

If Tampa Bay is going to stay competitive, the Buccaneers will need to have a successful ground game. Daniels is a solid runner, and he is averaging 7.1 YPC for the Bucs. Bucky Irving is averaging 4.3 YPC this season, but he averaged under 4.0 YPC in his last two games with Mayfield injured.

Best Bets for Thursday Night Football

When it comes to Thursday night football best bets this week, Dallas and the Over are the two plays. The Cowboys are the stronger play of the two as I believe Dallas will win by double digits due to all the issues Tampa Bay is having with its offense.

Best Spread Bet

Dallas Cowboys -9.5

Best Moneyline Bet

Dallas Cowboys -415

Best Total Bet

Over 47.5 Points

Thursday Night Football Player Props

More NFL player props will be released closer to kickoff, but here are the NFL props that I will be betting on for this week’s Thursday Night Football game.

Passing Props

The passing total for Dak Prescott is pretty high at 262.5 Passing Yards, but I still like the Over. Tampa Bay’s secondary is likely to struggle with Antoine Winfield Jr. injured, and Dallas has two elite receivers that can stretch the field in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. I believe that Prescott will throw for over 270 yards for the fourth straight game as the Cowboys won’t take their foot off the gas pedal given what happened in their last two tilts.

I’d be very surprised if Jalon Daniels threw two touchdown passes or more in this game. Daniels only threw 67 touchdown passes in his 49 games at Kansas, as his real talent is in his mobility. The undrafted rookie has thrown one touchdown pass and three interceptions so far this season.

Rushing Props

The only prop related to rushing yards that I like in this game is Daniels Over 44.5 Rushing Yards. Daniels ran the ball eight times for 55 yards last week against Green Bay, and I believe that Tampa Bay will install more quarterback runs and option looks into the offense this week in order to play to the rookie’s strengths.

Javonte Williams has the highest total for rushing yards at 73.5, while Bucky Irving has an over/under of 56.5 rushing yards in this game.

Receiving Props

Many bettors will jump on CeeDee Lamb’s Over after last week’s performance. Lamb currently leads the league in receptions and receiving yards, and he has finished with 100 receiving yards or more in three straight games. However, I believe the Buccaneers won’t let Lamb beat them and will roll coverage in his direction, so I will take Lamb Under 81.5 Receiving Yards.

Instead, I will be backing George Pickens to have Over 61.5 Receiving Yards. Pickens is overdue for a breakout game and was targeted 25 times in Dallas’ first three games before playing second fiddle to Lamb in a big way in Week 4.

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Javonte Williams is probably the best bet here, but Jalon Daniels might have good odds too considering his mobility.

Thursday Night Football Betting Trends

If you are following NFL betting trends, you are well aware that Tampa Bay has failed to cover the NFL betting spread in 13 straight games. The Buccaneers are 2-11 SU in this stretch with the two wins coming by a combined five points. Tampa Bay’s last ATS win came on October 26, 2025, when the Buccaneers covered the number against the New Orleans Saints in a 23-3 victory. That win pushed Tampa Bay to a 6-2 record before the wheels completely fell off.

Against the Spread Trends

Underdogs have fared well in the NFL this season. Underdogs are 35-29 ATS, covering at a rate of 54.7%. Dallas was one of the underdogs that won outright last week, as Dak Prescott found CeeDee Lamb in the end zone with 40 seconds left to give the Cowboys a 34-30 win.

Over/Under Trends

Five of Tampa Bay’s last seven games dating back to last season have gone Under the total, but the Over has hit in each of Dallas’ last 10 games.

Head-to-Head Trends

Dallas has bested Tampa Bay in each of their last two meetings and seven of their last 10 games are overall.

How to Bet on Thursday Night Football

One of the best NFL betting tips is to fade teams that are battling numerous significant injuries in short weeks. That’s why I called for Atlanta to upset Green Bay two weeks ago, and that’s why I believe that Dallas will cruise to a comfortable win over Tampa Bay on Thursday Night Football.

Understanding NFL Betting Markets

Bettors like to bet on home teams and favorites, and that’s why this line might move in favor of Dallas prior to kickoff.

Tips for Betting Thursday Night Football

There is typically value in underdogs and unders on Thursday Night Football as the short weeks make it harder to cover large spreads, but I don’t like either of those bets this week considering Tampa Bay’s injury woes.

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