ESPN College Football Predictions: Week 4 Odds & Best Bets

For the fourth straight weekend, College GameDay will head to an SEC school. The most popular college football pregame show in the business was in Baton Rouge for the clash between Clemson and LSU in Week 1. They headed to Austin to witness an epic showdown between Texas and Ohio State in Week 2, and the ESPN crew went to The Grove for Lane Kiffin’s return to Ole Miss last week. Now, College GameDay is headed to Knoxville for this week’s game between Tennessee and Texas.

I went 3-3 in my College Football Predictions last week. I had Ole Miss winning outright, and both Rutgers and Michigan State covered the college football betting odds against ranked opponents with ease. Unfortunately, Murray State, Auburn, and Alabama failed to cover the number by a combined 11 points.

Featured ESPN College Football Games This Week

There are a whopping six games between Top 25 teams this week as programs are starting to kick off their conference schedules. That will lead to some increased excitement surrounding college football game predictions, as this is the time of year when we start separating the contenders from the pretenders.

We have less potential NCAA football predictions to choose from as only a handful of schools are playing FCS opponents. There is still plenty of value available though, so keep reading to find out this week’s best bets.

Matchups with the Biggest National Attention

The showdown between Tennessee and Texas will be the marquee game at noon. Arch Manning and the Longhorns are less than a touchdown favorite against the Volunteers, but Tennessee is relatively untested after wins over Furman, Georgia Tech, and Kennesaw State.

It’s very likely that College GameDay would have been in Los Angeles if Oregon didn’t suffer a massive upset at the hands of Oklahoma State in Week 2. The Ducks will head south on I-5 to face the USC Trojans, and Oregon desperately needs a win against a Power Four opponent before a brutal November that sees Oregon play Ohio State and Michigan in consecutive weeks.

Finally, Michigan will host Iowa in what is sure to be a defensive slugfest. The total in this game is just 38.5 points as the Hawkeyes are ranked 9^th in Defensive SP+, and the Wolverines are ranked 11^th in Defensive SP+.

Games That Could Impact the Rankings

Ole Miss has an extremely tough test on the road against Florida this week. The Rebels vaulted up to No. 4 in the AP Poll after their thrilling win over LSU last Saturday night, but they are an underdog against the Gators in The Swamp on Saturday afternoon. New Florida head coach Jon Sumrall has the Gators playing well on both sides of the ball, and this could be a big letdown spot for Ole Miss after emotions were at a fever pitch against Lane Kiffin in Oxford.

LSU and Texas A&M will both look to bounce back after disappointing losses to SEC opponents last week. However, the Tigers’ loss looks a lot better than the Aggies’ defeat at the hands of Kentucky. The Wildcats were 16.5-point underdogs in College Station per the CFB betting odds, and they took a 28-7 lead into the fourth quarter en route to a 31-21 win.

The sixth game between ranked teams in Week 4 pits Missouri against Mississippi State. Both teams are 3-0 with a Power Four non-conference win to their credit, and the Bulldogs offense is one of the top units in the country. The Tigers have an excellent defense, so this should be a great example of strength on strength.

ESPN NCAAF Picks & Predictions

Once again, I like a lot of underdogs to win outright in my college football picks this week. This is the time of year when statistical models like Bill Connelly’s SP+ become really valuable when handicapping games, so it’s always good to view the SP+ Rankings before placing your bets.

Predicted Winners

Indiana might be the reigning national champion, but the Hoosiers haven’t received a lot of publicity this year. Although the Hoosiers dismantled their non-conference opponents by a combined score of 145-16, they are only a 21-point favorite at home on Friday night against Northwestern. The Wildcats hammered the Colorado Buffaloes 41-7 last week, but it sounds like Colorado may have had some off-field issues that played a role in the blowout. I think Indiana will easily cover the number in their Big Ten opener.

The oddsmakers are absolutely right to make Florida a favorite at home against Ole Miss. The Rebels might be ranked No. 4 after their emotionally charged win over LSU, but this is a prime letdown spot for Pete Golding’s team. Florida is currently ranked 15^th in SP+, while Ole Miss is five spots behind in 20^th, as opponents have been able to move the ball against this Rebels’ defense.

Potential Upsets to Watch

Eli Drinkwitz does not have a great record as an underdog, but Mississippi State is a bit overrated. The Bulldogs were able to go on the road and beat Minnesota and South Carolina these last two weeks. However, both of those teams are likely to finish in the bottom half of their conferences, and the Gamecocks blew a 16-0 lead. Missouri is ranked eight points higher than Mississippi State per SP+, and I don’t think that the Bulldogs’ attempt to set the world record for most cowbells at a game will impact the Tigers as much as the oddsmakers indicate.

Don’t be too shocked if South Carolina goes into Tuscaloosa and knocks off Alabama on Saturday afternoon. The Gamecocks are currently ranked 26^th in SP+, and the Crimson Tide no longer have the home field advantage they could rely on in the Nick Saban era. For all their faults, Florida State scored 36 points and racked up 471 total yards against this defense last week, and the Seminoles might have won this game if not for three costly turnovers.

Games That Could Be Closer Than Expected

Miami is dealing with a bevy of injuries following their Friday night win over Wake Forest. The Hurricanes will go on the road to take on Clemson next week, so I believe they will focus on getting healthy against Central Michigan on Saturday. Miami is a massive 41.5-point favorite against the Chippewas, and that’s just too big of a number in this spot.

Although Bowling Green looks like one of the worst FBS teams in the country, I think the Falcons will cover the number against South Florida on Saturday. This is a weird road trip for the Bulls, and this program tends to underperform outside of Florida.

ESPN NCAAF Odds & Betting Preview

There are plenty of college football odds spread over three days this week, including a rare ESPN tripleheader on Friday.

Thursday, September 24
Coastal Carolina +2.5 vs. Liberty, O/U 50.5 (ESPN)

Friday, September 25

Temple +3 vs. Army, O/U 48.5 (ESPN)
UAB +7 vs. Navy, O/U 51.5 (ESPN)

Indiana -21 vs. Northwestern, O/U 49.5 (FOX)

California -1.5 vs. Clemson, O/U 50.5 (ESPN)

Saturday, September 26

Tennessee +4.5 vs. Texas, O/U 55.5 (ABC)
Louisville -12.5 vs. Wake Forest, O/U 58.5 (ESPN)
Baylor -10 vs. Colorado, O/U 55.5 (ESPN2)

UTSA -13.5 vs. Colorado State, O/U 58.5 (ESPNU)

Kentucky -20.5 vs. South Alabama, O/U 54.5 (SEC Network)

Georgia -14 vs. Oklahoma, O/U 44.5 (ESPN)
Florida -3 vs. Ole Miss, O/U 58.5 (ABC)
Michigan -5.5 vs. Iowa, O/U 38.5 (CBS)

Western Michigan +7 vs. Boise State, O/U 50.5 (ESPN2)
Georgia Southern +18.5 vs. Houston, O/U 56.5 (ESPNU)
Auburn -9.5 vs. Vanderbilt, O/U 54.5 (SEC Network)

Alabama -12.5 vs. South Carolina, O/U 53.5 (ESPN)

Cincinnati +6.5 vs. Kansas State, O/U 55.5 (ESPN2)

LSU -8.5 vs. Texas A&M, O/U 51.5 (ABC)

USC +3 vs Oregon, O/U 62.5 (NBC)

North Carolina State -14 vs. Appalachian State, O/U 55.5 (ESPNU)

Mississippi State -6.5 vs. Missouri, O/U 58.5 (SEC Network)

Stanford +3.5 vs. Georgia Tech, O/U 48.5 (ESPN)

How the Betting Markets Compare

Coastal Carolina was a 1.5-point favorite when the college football betting odds were released on Sunday afternoon, but now the Chanticleers are a 2.5-point home underdog against Liberty. There has been plenty of action on UAB as the Blazers have dropped from +10.5 down to +7 against Navy, and Missouri has moved from +3.5 to +6.5 over the last couple days.

Factors That Could Move the Odds

Suspensions and injury announcements are always the biggest factors here, so it’s important to keep an ear to the ground, especially with a team that might be ready to implode like Colorado.

Final ESPN College Football Predictions

Both of my best college football upset picks are in SEC games this week. I believe Missouri will spoil Mississippi State’s record setting day, and I think South Carolina has the potential to pull off an upset over Alabama. Indiana and Florida are the only favorites I like this week.

Biggest Takeaways Before Game Day

Rain is expected across the Midwest on Saturday, so keep that in mind with your bets this weekend.

Games Worth Following This Week

There are a bevy of great games this Saturday, including a marquee game at every time slot. This is a fantastic weekend to spend 10 hours on your couch soaking in all the action.

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