FIFA World Cup Bracket Predictions & Knockout Stage Best Bets

The first match of the knockout stage is set, and it is quite an unlikely tilt if you look at World Cup bracket predictions before the start of the tournament. Co-hosts Canada will face off against South Africa at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California on Sunday, June 28, at 3 p.m. ET on FOX. Most soccer analysts had either Canada or Switzerland taking part in this match as the Group B runner-up, but only a few FIFA World Cup bracket predictions had South Africa finishing as the Group A runner-up.

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2026 World Cup Bracket Predictions: Favorites & Dark Horses

Group B finished exactly the way that the World Cup group odds predicted. Switzerland was a slight odds-on favorite to top the group, while Canada was pegged to finish in second place. Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar were tipped to finish third and fourth respectively, and that’s exactly how it played out on that side of the bracket.

However, the 2026 World Cup bracket predictions were thrown into disarray after South Africa stunned South Korea 1-0 on Wednesday night in Monterrey. South Africa was predicted to finish at the bottom of Group A by almost every analyst, but Bafana Bafana pulled off a shocking upset to make the knockout rounds for the first time in the country’s history.

Top Nations Expected to Reach the Knockout Stage

There’s no doubt that Canada will be favored to make it to the Round of 16. Although the co-hosts will not play a match outside the United States again after failing to top Group B, they can’t be too disappointed in their fate after South Africa emerged as their opponent in the Round of 32. 

Dark Horse Teams That Could Make a Deep Run

It’s highly unlikely that either South Africa or Canada advance to the quarterfinals. The relative “best case” scenario for the winner of this match is to face 2022 World Cup semifinalists Morocco who finished behind Brazil in Group C. 

Teams With the Easiest Path to the Final

Neither South Africa nor Canada have an easy path to a potential World Cup Final. South Africa was a hefty 1500-1 to win the World Cup at the start of the competition, while Canada’s World Cup odds were 170-1.

How the World Cup Groups Could Shape the Knockout Bracket

It has been interesting to see how the World Cup bracket has been affected by the inclusion of 32 teams in the knockout rounds. Now that eight third-place teams are guaranteed a spot in the Round of 32, it has led to some sitting and waiting to determine opponents and a bit more gamesmanship from teams looking for an easier run to the World Cup.

There may even be some shenanigans in World Cup groups such as Group J. Speculation is mounting that we could see a repeat of the Disgrace of Gijon, but with Algeria being the beneficiary this time around. In that infamous match at the 1982 World Cup, Austria and West Germany played a listless game that ensured both teams made it to the knockout rounds.

Now that four points will definitely get a third-place team into the knockout rounds, Algeria and Austria might not have much explosiveness as a draw would send both teams into the Round of 32. That’s not what fans of countries like South Korea and Scotland want to hear, but that is the cold calculus of this new format at the 2026 World Cup. 

Toughest and Most Competitive Groups

Group I was the proverbial Group of Death before the start of this tournament. That moniker has proven to be true, as France is now the betting favorite to win the World Cup and Norway is a team no one wants to face with Erling Haaland notching a brace in each of his first two appearances. Senegal will be an extremely dangerous team if the Lions of Teranga can make it into the knockout rounds too.

The other group that has been incredible to watch is Group F. The Netherlands, Japan, and Sweden have all proven to be dangerous with Sweden performing extremely well as a Pot 4 team. 

Potential Round of 16 Matchups to Watch

One of the most intriguing Round of 16 potential matchups would be Mexico hosting England at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. El Tri won all of their games in the Group Stage and will now get to play their Round of 32 match at home and will be heavily favored to make the Round of 16. England will be Mexico’s likely opponent if the Three Lions defeat Panama as expected, and they would have to travel from Atlanta to Mexico City.

World Cup 2026 Knockout Bracket Predictions by Round

Currently, it looks like defending champions Argentina have the clearest path to the World Cup provided Uruguay doesn’t upset Spain on Friday. That could lead to a monumental Round of 32 clash between Argentina and Spain that would knock out one of the tournament favorites by World Cup bracket predictions way too early.

Round of 16 & Quarterfinal Picks

Argentina is probably the safest pick to reach the quarterfinals at this moment given how the World Cup groups are likely to shake out. The results of Group I’s final match between France and Norway will be extremely interesting as the winner of that group will probably face Germany in the Round of 16, while the runner-up in Group I will probably be paired against Brazil.

Semifinal and Final Predictions

Lionel Messi and Argentina have seen their World Cup odds drop precipitously from over 10-1 at the start of the competition. Argentina are now the third favorite behind France and Spain at +550, highlighting the World Cup bracket predictions that have Messi leading his country to one more deep run in this tournament.

World Cup Knockout Best Bets to Watch

The best bets for the World Cup knockout stage match between South Africa and Canada on June 28 are Canada on the three-way line and the first half Under. South Africa have yet to score in the first half at the World Cup, and Bafana Bafana have just two goals to their credit. Teboho Mokoena converted a penalty in the 83rd minute against Czechia to ensure a 1-1 draw, and Thapelo Maseko scored in the 63rd minute of South Africa’s 1-0 win over Canada. Bafana Bafana have allowed just three goals at this World Cup, and one of those goals was an awful defensive mistake against Mexico in the opener.

Meanwhile, Canada looked pedestrian in the first half outside of their 6-0 blowout win over Qatar that was buoyed by two red cards for the Qataris. Cyle Larin scored in the 78th minute to secure a 1-1 draw against Bosnia and Herzegovina in the opener, and the Canadians failed to score against Switzerland until the 76th minute.

Best Value Bets and Underdogs

Although this is a relatively good draw for South Africa, it’s hard to imagine this team besting Canada to get into the Round of 16.

Futures Worth Considering Before the Knockouts

Colombia has a lot of upside at 50-1 to win the World Cup. Los Cafeteros have had a few shaky moments in their wins over Uzbekistan and the Democratic Republic of Congo, but they have also shown a lot of potential. Their odds to win the World Cup will fall significantly with a result against Portugal in their final Group Stage match.

Many will be jumping on the Mexico bandwagon after a dominant performance in the Group Stage too. El Tri are also 50-1 to win the World Cup after shutout victories over all three of their Group Stage opponents. They will also benefit from playing their next two matches in raucous Estadio Azteca.

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