Thursday Night Football Predictions: Falcons vs. Packers

The injury reports for both the Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons are extensive ahead of this week’s Thursday night football game. Green Bay is dealing with a myriad of injuries on both sides of the ball that almost led to the Packers being upset by the lowly New York Jets last week, while the Atlanta Falcons look like one of the worst teams in football after Michael Penix and Tua Tagovailoa both missed the first two weeks due to injury. Fortunately for Atlanta, Michael Penix has been cleared to return for the NFL Thursday night football game in Green Bay, but the Falcons are still almost a touchdown underdog per the NFL betting odds in Lambeau Field.

Brett Favre will certainly be a topic of discussion as Atlanta is the team that drafted the Hall of Fame quarterback, while Green Bay is the team that he led to a Super Bowl win. Now without further ado, let’s get into Week 3’s Thursday night football predictions.

Thursday Night Football Matchup Preview

Atlanta will try and avoid becoming the first 0-3 team in the NFL during this Thursday night football matchup. Michael Penix is eager to get back onto the field after suffering a season-ending injury last November, and first-year head coach Kevin Stefanski is hoping that Penix can turn the Falcons’ fortunes. Meanwhile, the Packers know they can’t afford to drop a game in the most competitive division in the NFL. The NFC North became the first division in league history to have every team finish above .500 last season.

Team Records & Recent Form

The Falcons currently have the most inept offense in the league. Atlanta has scored just 16 points this season on the way to an 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS start. Veteran backup Cooper Rush was awful under center, completing 22 of 39 passes for 229 yards with 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions through two games before being benched in favor of undrafted rookie Jack Strand at halftime of last week’s 34-3 loss to the Carolina Panthers. Strand didn’t do much better, so it’s not surprising that the Under has cashed in both of Atlanta’s games so far this season.

Green Bay is sitting at 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS ahead of this week’s Thursday Night Football game. The Packers blew a 22-10 lead to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1, allowing 29 straight points while turning the ball over on all four of their fourth quarter possessions (twice on downs, one fumble, and one interception). They flipped the script last week against the Jets though, overcoming a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter to avoid what would have been an embarrassing loss. That victory snapped a six-game losing streak dating back to last season.

Key Injuries & Roster Updates

Michael Penix will be making his season debut under center for the Falcons, but there are already concerns about how long he can stay healthy. Penix tore his right ACL twice in college, and he tore his left ACL last year. Backup Tua Tagovailoa was signed as an insurance policy, but Tagovailoa has been injured too, missing the first two games due to oblique and ankle injuries. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor is listed as questionable, and defensive starters Brandon Dorlus, A.J. Terrell Jr., and Samson Ebukam are all questionable to play as well.

There are major injury concerns along Green Bay’s offensive line. The Packers had to play all eight of their offensive linemen last week as Aaron Banks, Zach Bako-Bewele, and Donovan Jennings all left the game with injuries. This unit was not very experienced before those injuries, and now it figures to be one of the most inexperienced units in the NFL. Green Bay has some issues in its defensive front seven too as Micah Parsons is still out, and Javon Hargrave is questionable due to a knee injury and a concussion.

Storylines to Watch

The spotlight will be on Michael Penix as he returns to action. Penix had an up-and-down season for the Falcons in 2025, completing 60.1% of his passes for 1,982 yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions. Atlanta won three of its first five games with Penix under center, but the Falcons proceeded to lose four straight afterwards as Penix struggled to complete passes.

Thursday Night Football Odds

Oddsmakers were expecting Michael Penix to return this week, so the NFL betting line for this game remains unchanged from what we saw on Sunday evening. Green Bay is favored by 6.5 points in Lambeau Field over Atlanta.

Point Spread Odds

This spread is unlikely to change much before Thursday night. Green Bay was favored by 7 points for a brief moment on Monday, but that line quickly reverted back to where it opened.

Moneyline Odds

Green Bay is a sizable favorite over the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday night. The Packers are -280 on the moneyline in this game, meaning you would need to wager $280 to win $100 on the hosts. Conversely, the Falcons are +240 on the moneyline, so a $100 bet on the underdog would return a handsome $240 profit if Atlanta picked up its first win.

Over/Under Odds

I’m a little surprised to see the total in this game listed at 44.5 considering the injury and quarterback issues. Thursday Night Football games tend to be lower scoring, and I don’t believe this game will have that many points.

Thursday Night Football Predictions

This is not going to be a pretty football game. Green Bay is going to struggle on offense due to injuries along an already inexperienced offensive line, while Atlanta and Penix are a big question mark. I wouldn’t be surprised if Atlanta won this game outright, but the best bet is Under 44.5 Points.

Winner Prediction

I was dead right when it came to last week’s Thursday night football picks. I had Buffalo beating Detroit 34-23 in a game where the Bills covered and the game went over the total, and both of those bets cashed. It’s tougher to pick a winner this week, but the Packers’ injury woes have me seriously considering the Falcons to pull off the upset.

Score Prediction

Atlanta Falcons 17, Green Bay Packers 16

X-Factor of the Game

If Atlanta wins this game, the Falcons will need to be able to run the ball somewhat successfully on Green Bay’s defense. Bijan Robinson is one of the most talented running backs in the league, and he has been one of the few bright spots on this roster through two games. Robinson is the team’s leading rusher and receiver with 48 touches for 254 yards and a touchdown. The Packers rank second in rush defense, allowing just 2.9 YPC through two games, so Robinson will have his work cut out for him.

Best Bets for Thursday Night Football

I don’t really love a side when it comes to my Thursday night football best bets. Atlanta has the potential to keep it close, and we have seen teams pull off upsets on short weeks, but it is more difficult to prove the oddsmakers wrong on the road. Instead, my best bet is Under 44.5 points, and I had the total in this game pegged at 41 due to all the injuries along Green Bay’s offensive line.

Best Spread Bet

Atlanta Falcons +6.5

Best Moneyline Bet

Atlanta Falcons +240

Best Total Bet

Under 44.5 Points

Thursday Night Football Player Props

More NFL player props will be released closer to kickoff, but here are the NFL props that I will be betting on for this week’s Thursday Night Football game.

Passing Props

Due to the aforementioned offensive line issues, I just don’t see Jordan Love throwing for a lot of passing yards in this game. Additionally, Jayden Reed is questionable due to a back injury, potentially taking away one of Love’s best targets. Christian Watson has been relatively boom or bust during his career, and 2025 first-round pick Matthew Golden didn’t have a great rookie campaign. That has me liking Under 226.5 Passing Yards for Love.

Rushing Props

Although I do think that Bijan Robinson will have a solid game, setting his over/under for rushing yards at 80.5 is too high. Robinson receives a lot of screens and checkdowns in the passing game, and I believe that might be where he makes more of a mark on Thursday night.

MarShawn Lloyd is averaging just 3.0 YPC, and he only played 16 snaps in Green Bay’s win last week due to a fumble. However, I believe that Lloyd and Kaleb Johnson will finish over their rushing totals. Lloyd’s rushing total is set at 29.5 Rushing Yards, and Johnson’s rushing total is set at 37.5 Rushing Yards. I think both players will see enough action, and Matt LaFleur will emphasize the ground game enough, for both Lloyd and Johnson to go over their totals.

Receiving Props

I will happily take Bijan Robinson Over 40.5 Receiving Yards this week. Robinson has been targeted 14 times already this season, and he has 11 receptions for 99 yards and a touchdown. The fourth year running back out of Texas was targeted 261 times in his first three seasons, and Penix will probably use him as a safety valve often in his first game back.

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Once again, Bijan Robinson has to be the play here. Robinson is the only skill position player that is constantly a threat to find the end zone that will be on the field this Thursday night. Back-up Brian Robinson is questionable, so Bijan Robinson might see even more action in Week 3.

Thursday Night Football Betting Trends

There aren’t a lot of pertinent NFL betting trends ahead of this Thursday night game. We have seen the favorites go 1-1 ATS and SU to this point, and we have also seen one game go Under and one game go Over the total.

Typically, Thursday Night Football favors home teams and favorites. Teams on short rest greatly benefit from playing on their home turf and limiting their travel, while visitors have extra hurdles to overcome given the short weeks.

Against the Spread Trends

Atlanta has covered the spread in five straight games following a double-digit home loss.

Over/Under Trends

Green Bay games have had very high-scoring fourth quarters so far this season, so that may be a bet to consider in this scenario.

Head-to-Head Trends

The Packers have covered three straight games against the Falcons dating back to 2018. However, Atlanta knocked off Green Bay 25-24 when these teams last met three years ago.

How to Bet on Thursday Night Football

One of my NFL betting tips specific to Thursday Night Football is to bet against road teams dealing with injury issues. Atlanta is getting healthy though, while Green Bay is the team that is decimated by injuries. Issues will be apparent along the Packers’ offensive line, so it is difficult to back the home team in this scenario.

Understanding NFL Betting Markets

Bettors like to bet on home teams and favorites, but I don’t believe the line will move in Green Bay’s favor since it has already rebounded from 7.

Tips for Betting Thursday Night Football

There is typically value in underdogs and unders on Thursday Night Football as the short weeks make it harder to cover large spreads, and that is certainly the case in this situation.

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