NCAAF Week 11: Predictions, Odds & Betting Preview

There has been a lot of turmoil in the college football odds this season. Ohio State, Texas, Oregon, and LSU were on the short list of national title favorites, yet all four teams may miss the College Football Playoff completely. Instead, teams like Utah and UCLA are poised to be in the top five of the College Football Playoff Rankings on Tuesday night although neither team was high up the list of national title contenders in preseason college football picks.

I believe that one of those two teams will lose their first game this weekend, so keep reading to find out my college football predictions this week.

Top College Football Games This Week

We have a lot of great games on the college football schedule this weekend. Two of the top teams in the ACC will square off when SMU hosts Wake Forest, Indiana will look to crush USC’s CFP dreams by keeping their hopes of repeating alive, and there are two college football games on Saturday night with massive stakes. Texas and LSU will face off in what might be a CFP elimination game, while Arizona will host unbeaten Utah, with the Utes listed as a road favorite in college football odds.

Ranked Matchups

The new College Football Playoff Rankings won’t be released until Tuesday night, but there are several games between ranked teams in the AP Top 25 Poll. No. 25 SMU will welcome No. 11 Wake Forest to Dallas in a battle of ACC contenders. No. 2 Utah will go on the road to face No. 22 Arizona after a massive Holy War win over BYU on Saturday. No. 6 Indiana will host No. 15 USC following a well-deserved bye week for both teams, and No. 8 Texas will try to completely dash No. 24 LSU’s title hopes with a win in Death Valley on Saturday night.

Conference Showdowns

College GameDay will head to Boise for the first time since 2010 as the Boise State Broncos can clinch a spot in the PAC 12 Championship Game with a win over the Oregon State Beavers on Saturday. Boise State is looking to claim an at-large spot in the College Football Playoff, and the Broncos have made a pretty strong case with eight straight wins after a season-opening loss on the road against Oregon.

There will finally be some separation in the Big 12 title race too. Arizona will host Utah in the game that will get the most attention, but the late game between Oklahoma State and Texas Tech can help stratify the conference race as well. This game has one of the highest totals on Saturday as the Cowboys and Red Raiders have high-powered offenses.

Rivalry Games to Watch

Two of the smaller FBS conferences have the biggest rivalry games this week as MAC rivals Ohio and Miami of Ohio will meet in the Battle of the Bricks, while Georgia State hosts Georgia Southern in a rivalry game that has been labeled Modern Day Hate.

College Football Weekly Predictions

Every team that is not named Army or Navy has just three weeks left in the regular season before the final Conference Championship Weekend for the foreseeable future. The College Football Playoff will expand to 24 teams next season, leading to a shift in the college football schedule.

Game-by-Game Predictions

It’s hard to believe that the Wake Forest Demon Deacons are actual CFP contenders, but Jake Dickert has done the impossible in Winston-Salem. Wake Forest is 8-1 with a lone loss to Miami as the program’s only blemish. The Demon Deacons have kicked it into gear over their last five games, outscoring their opponents by a combined margin of 264-31, so one of my college football predictions will be for Wake Forest to knock off SMU.

Many observers are jumping off the LSU bandwagon after a 31-13 loss to Alabama at home on Saturday, but I believe the Tigers will keep their CFP hopes alive with a win over the Texas Longhorns. It’s extremely difficult to win a night game in Death Valley, so the Bayou Bengals will be one of my college football picks this week.

Indiana hasn’t been as dominant as they were last season, but the Hoosiers are still getting the job done. They have relied heavily on one of the best defenses in the country to jump out to an 8-1 start, and I believe that defense will come up big in a win over USC on Saturday.

Upset Alerts

Arizona stands a good chance of knocking off one of the last two undefeated teams in the country this weekend. The Wildcats have one of the best quarterbacks in the nation in Noah Fifita, and the undersized quarterback can definitely lead Arizona to a big upset over Utah.

Texas Tech is a short road underdog against Oklahoma State, but I think the Red Raiders can get the job done. Thomas Castellanos has given the offense a major shot in the arm since replacing Will Hammond two weeks ago, and his mobility has given defenses an extra factor to consider.

Score Predictions

Wake Forest Demon Deacons 34, SMU Mustangs 30
Indiana Hoosiers 23, USC Trojans 17
Boise State Broncos 34, Oregon State Beavers 24
LSU Tigers 27, Texas Longhorns 20
Arizona Wildcats 30, Utah Utes 24
Texas Tech Red Raiders 41, Oklahoma State Cowboys 36

College Football Betting Odds

There are NCAAF football odds for every game this week at BetCris Arizona. We have college football odds from Tuesday night to Saturday night so there are plenty of chances to get in on the action.

Point Spreads

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are just a one-point road favorite over the SMU Mustangs as the NCAAF odds have this game as a relative toss-up.

Indiana opened as an eight-point favorite over USC this weekend, but the line has slowly fallen to Hoosiers -7 as of Tuesday morning.

We have seen a decent amount of action on Boise State since it was announced that the Broncos would be hosting College GameDay. They were originally a 10.5-point favorite, but that number has shot up to 13 points as this will be an even more raucous atmosphere with ESPN on campus.

There has been no movement in the point spread for the LSU-Texas game as the Tigers remain four-point favorites by the college football odds available at BetCris Arizona.

Moneyline Odds

Arizona is a 2.5-point underdog against Utah on Saturday night, and that has led to enticing odds on the Wildcats to pull off the upset. Currently, Arizona is +118 on the moneyline, while Utah is -134 on the moneyline.

Money is trickling in on Texas Tech this weekend too. The Red Raiders are a 3.5-point underdog per the NCAAF football odds, and they are considered a moderate moneyline underdog at +147 to upend the Oklahoma State Cowboys.

Over/Under Totals

Texas Tech and Oklahoma State have one of the highest totals this week at 73 points. Neither of these teams plays great defense, and the Cowboys might have the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft in Drew Mestemaker.

The lowest total of our featured games is LSU/Texas. Oddsmakers have set the over/under in that game at 46.5 points considering the strength of these defenses.

In the other featured games, the total in Boise State/Oregon State is 65.5 points, the total in SMU/Wake Forest is 61.5 points, the total in Arizona/Utah is 55.5 points, and the total in Indiana/USC is 50.5 points. All these totals are available at BetCris Arizona.

Best College Football Bets This Week

There are only a few more weeks where every team can be featured in college football best bets this season. We are nearing the end of the regular season, so let’s get into this week’s college football betting picks.

Best Spread Bets

The favorite one of my college football betting picks in terms of a spread bet is LSU. Arch Manning has been very underwhelming despite a ton of hype over the last two seasons, and I don’t think he has turned a corner despite two solid performances against Mississippi State and Missouri.

I also like Wake Forest to cover the NCAA betting odds on the road against SMU. The Demon Deacons have been red hot over the last month, as North Carolina transfer Gio Lopez has thrived in this system. Lopez is completing 67.1% of his passes for 9.5 YPA with 18 touchdowns against a single interception.

Best Moneyline Picks

Arizona stands a very good chance of beating Utah this week. Noah Fifita is an excellent signal caller, and the Utes are in one of the most obvious letdown spots of the season. The Wildcats have the talent to take down the Utes, and they are only a short underdog for a reason.

There is real value in the Texas Tech moneyline against Oklahoma State too. This game is a virtual toss-up to me even though the game is in Stillwater as the Red Raiders have been much better on offense with Thomas Castellanos taking snaps. Castellanos has thrown for seven touchdowns without an interception in his last two starts, and he has run for over 100 yards in each of those two games.

Best Totals Bets

The best total bet this week is the Under in Indiana versus USC. The Hoosiers have the second-best defense in the country per SP+. Tobi Osunsanmi has been one of the best pass rushers in the nation with 10 sacks, and Indiana has recorded 32 total sacks on the year. USC’s offense has been good, but not great, and we have seen diminishing returns from Jayden Maiava in recent weeks.

The Under is a good game in the Boise State-Oregon State game too. Although the Broncos and Beavers don’t have great defenses in terms of SP+, none of their last seven head-to-head meetings have had more than 62 total points.

Games with the Biggest Betting Value

The college football betting picks for this week are LSU -4, Wake Forest -1, Arizona moneyline, Texas Tech moneyline, and the Under in both Indiana-USC and Boise State-Oregon State.

Underdogs Worth Backing

Underdogs have been big winners in college football betting throughout this season. We have seen numerous favorites fall short each week, as several preseason national title contenders are doubtful to make the College Football Playoff. Arizona and Texas Tech provide the best value as underdogs in our featured college football matchups this week.

Favorite Teams Worth Laying Points

Wake Forest and LSU are the favorites to like this week. The Demon Deacons have been incredible on offense, rising to 13^th in Offensive SP+. This team has been solid in all phases and also ranks in the top 25 in Defensive SP+ and Special Teams SP+, whereas the Mustangs are significantly worse in both areas.

Many bettors might wince when considering laying the points with LSU at home after what happened last week against Alabama. However, the Tigers are ranked 7^th in SP+ as this team is elite on offense and defense. Special teams have been the bugaboo for LSU, but those issues tend to be diminished on home turf.

Trap Games

Arizona should benefit greatly from facing Utah after the Utes’ biggest game of the season. The Utah-BYU rivalry is so fierce that it is referred to as the Holy War, and there is typically a natural letdown for Utah after this game.

Teams Trending Up and Down

Most of the college football rankings are already out, but the College Football Playoff Rankings will be released on Tuesday evening. Georgia is expected to be No. 1 after a blowout win over Ole Miss, but Utah is one of two unbeaten teams in the country.

Teams on Winning Streaks

Utah and UCLA are the only two college football teams that have yet to lose a game this season. Boise State has won eight straight games after losing to Oregon in its season opener, and both Wake Forest and New Mexico have won six straight tilts.

Teams Losing Momentum

Ohio State has seen its stock fall significantly over the last few weeks. The Buckeyes were 6-1 and riding high after a road win over Indiana, but they have since dropped consecutive games against USC and Oregon. One more loss will take Ohio State completely out of the CFP picture, but the Buckeyes are walking on thin ice with three losses considering there were no three-loss CFB teams that made the playoff last season.

Injury Updates

Julian Sayin will miss the rest of the regular season for Ohio State, and that injury has played a major part in the Buckeyes’ recent woes. Heisman Trophy frontrunner Malachi Toney has to undergo surgery for a high ankle sprain that will keep him out for at least another month, while Tennessee and Oregon both lost star defenders for the rest of the year in Tyree Weathersby and Teitum Tuioti.

Players to Watch This Week

Noah Fifita has been one of the most impressive college football players this season, and his play will be pivotal if Arizona is to upset Utah on Saturday night. There are other NCAA football players to watch too.

Quarterbacks to Watch

Thomas Castellanos was the backup quarterback at Texas Tech before taking over the starting role two weeks ago. This is the fourth stop in Castellanos’ five-year collegiate career, and many analysts had written him off after an underwhelming season at Florida State. However, Castellanos has shown that he can thrive in the right system given his dual-threat ability, and he could post big numbers against Oklahoma State.

Impact Playmakers

Dylan Riley is the nation’s leading rusher. The Boise State running back is in line for all-conference honors as he has rushed for 1,241 yards and 11 touchdowns while averaging 6.7 YPC on the season. Riley carried the ball 19 times for 192 yards and two scores in last week’s 64-38 rout of Colorado State, and he also caught a 73-yard touchdown pass on the second play of the game. He has the potential to be one of the top performing CFB players on Saturday.

Defensive Difference-Makers

Colin Simmons is likely to be a top ten pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. The Texas edge rusher has been one of the nation’s best at getting to the quarterback, and he is tied for the overall lead with 10.5 sacks this season. Simmons has 31.5 sacks in three seasons, and he has also forced eight fumbles.

Factors Behind Our Weekly Picks

Home field advantage is one of the most key factors to consider when looking for college football betting tips, and that’s a big part of why I am backing both LSU and Arizona with my college football analysis this week.

Home-Field Advantage

LSU has one of the best home-field advantages in college football. The Tigers are almost impossible to beat in Tiger Stadium at night, as the Alabama Crimson Tide are the only program that has been able to achieve that feat on a regular basis. Crowd noise has thrown off Arch Manning in earlier games this season, and no stadium gets louder than Death Valley.

Turnover Matchups

Turnover margin is one of the biggest determinants of a team’s success. It should come as no surprise that Notre Dame and UCLA are the top two teams in this department, and both the Fighting Irish and Bruins are poised to make the College Football Playoff. Surprisingly, Utah has a rather marginal turnover advantage at +0.4 despite the team’s success.

Strength of Schedule

Not all opponents are created equal, and that’s one of the biggest factors going against Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons have looked great, but they have played a relatively weak set of opponents since their loss to Miami (FL). SMU appears to be the toughest test left for Wake Forest, as the Demon Deacons will close out their season at Georgia Tech before hosting Duke in their regular season finale.

Looking Ahead to Next Week

The penultimate week of the regular season college football schedule will start on Tuesday, November 17, with MACtion. There is plenty of buzz about some of the upcoming college football games next Saturday.

Early Lines to Watch

Lane Kiffin will have to deal with another homecoming in one of the most anticipated games next week. The Tennessee Volunteers will play host to the LSU Tigers in Knoxville, and this figures to be one of the most expensive tickets. There is no betting line available yet as LSU’s performance against Texas on Saturday night will have a big impact on the betting odds for this game.

Potential Ranked Matchups

In all likelihood, LSU and Tennessee will be a ranked matchup, but there are a handful of other potential ranked matchups. Missouri will host Kentucky, South Carolina will host Georgia in an underrated rivalry game, and Notre Dame will welcome SMU to South Bend.

Games with Playoff Implications

Boise State will likely earn the guaranteed non-Power Four spot in the College Football Playoff if the Broncos win out. That means the Broncos must avoid upset bids by Oregon State this week and San Diego State next week. If Boise State stumbles, the winner of the Wyoming-New Mexico game on Friday night could potentially sneak their way into the CFP.

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